Hurricane Elsa slightly weakens, expected to impact Greater Antilles, Southeast US

Force Thirteen’s latest cone for Elsa, 03 July 2021, 11:00 UTC.

[CURRENT STATUS]
Hurricane Elsa slightly weakens as it becomes less organized. As per 5 AM AST advisory of the National Hurricane Center. Elsa was located at 16.2N, 69.0W or about 190 miles (310 kilometers) East-Southeast of Isla Beata Dominican Republic with sustain winds of 75 mph, gusting up to 90 mph, minimum central pressure was estimated to be at 998 millibars. The storm is currently moving West-Northwest at speed of 31 mph. Latest Force Thirteen fix at 5 AM AST is in agreement with the NHC.

[CURRENT WARNINGS]
Hurricane Warning (Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area):
• Southern Coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the Border with Haiti
• Southern Portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the Southern Border with the Dominican Republic


Hurricane Watches
(Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurance of TS-force winds):
• Cuban Provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantamano, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba


Tropical Storm Warning (Tropical Storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area):
• Coast of Haiti north of Port Au France
• Southern Coast of Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano


Tropical Storm Watches (Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the watch area):
• North Coast of Dominican Republic ftom Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo
• Cayman Brac and Little Cayman


Elsa within days could impact search and rescue efforts at the site of the condo collapse in Surfside, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said. “It is possible that this area could see tropical storm-force winds,” he said Friday morning. “Not guaranteed, but it is possible, and so our Department of Emergency Management is assuming that that will happen and making the necessary preparations to be able, obviously, to protect a lot of the equipment. “You could potentially have an event with the building, as well,” DeSantis said.

[OBSERVATIONS/REPORTS]
Wilfred Abrahams, Barbados’ Minister of Home Affairs, Information and Public Affairs, called on people to open their homes to those in need. “We are getting a lot of reports of damage,” he said, citing power outages, fallen trees, flash flooding and damaged roofs in the south of the island. Emergency services were still unable to reach people. So far, there were no reports of injuries or deaths.

Authorities opened 94 shelters in St. Vincent and urged people to evacuate if they lived near a valley, given the threat of flash flooding, mudslides and lahars, especially in the northern part of the island where La Soufrière volcano is located. The volcano erupted just last April.

Meanwhile, officials in St. Lucia said that 90% of power customers were without electricity at the height of the storm. Landslides, flooding and damaged homes also were reported.

[FORECAST]
Forecast track of Hurricane Elsa brings heavy rainfall over Greater Antilles. Hispaniola can receive as much as 4 inches of rain, Jamaica can have as much as 5 inches. Cuba will receive 1-6 inches of rain with some isolated areas in the Central part of Island receiving as much as 15 inches.

Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
within the Hurricane Warning areas in Hispaniola later today, in Jamaica beginning Sunday, and Eastern Cuba by early Sunday and Monday. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa’s potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend.

 

[SOURCES]
Elsa strengthens into season’s 1st hurricane in Caribbean: https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-elsa-caribbean-0702-8e284be07a3d01f49ce21fee94892e8d
Hurricane Elsa hits Caribbean nations of Barbados, St. Vincent :https://www.dw.com/en/hurricane-elsa-hits-caribbean-nations-of-barbados-st-vincent/a-58144456

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