UNIQUE IDENTIFIER: r
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 0900 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: POORLY ORGANIZED KATE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC


INPUT INTERP ATCF: al102021 KATE 20210831 0845 22.98 -50.9 L TS 35.0 1006.0 4.74 1.37
ADVISORY NUMBER: 4


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)AUG 31 2021, 1500 UTC.

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  L ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

 
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
Kate remains a strongly sheared tropical storm with the associated 
deep convection occurring in intermittent bursts in the eastern 
semicircle of the cyclone, owing to 850-200-mb west-northwesterly 
vertical wind shear of at least 30 kt. The most recent Dvorak 
satellite current intensity (CI) estimates remain at 35 kt, and 
that is the initial intensity set for this advisory. This intensity 
is consistent with an earlier SSMI-S passive microwave satellite 
overpass that showed wind speeds of 30-35 kt on the west side of 
Kate where no convection/rain was present.

The intensity forecast is not as straightforward as the track 
forecast. The aforementioned hostile shear conditions are predicted 
by the regional and global models, especially the ECMWF model, to 
gradually abate over the next 18-24 hours, with the magnitude of the 
shear to decrease to less than 10 kt by 24-36 hours when Kate will 
be moving over 28.5 deg C water temperatures. If Kate can survive 
the next 18 hours or so, which is possible since the 850-300-mb 
shear is much less at only 10-15 kt, then some restrengthening could 
occur, especially in the 24-48-hour period when the cyclone will be 
located underneath a small upper-level anticyclone. Countering that, 
however, is the somewhat dry air (near-50-percent humidity) in the 
mid-levels of the atmosphere that could limit the formation of 
inner-core convection.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
 

 
$$
Forecaster 

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