• STORM FLOATER •
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20L (TEDDY)
PUBLIC ADVISORY #15
FORCE THIRTEEN SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE
1510 UTC MON SEP 21 2020

...TEDDY WEAKENS BUT WIND FIELD EXPANDING...

SUMMARY OF 1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR 31.1 N 62.7 W...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90MPH...150KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower East Pubnico to Main-a-Dieu Nova Scotia


DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
Teddy has weakened some since yesterday.  While the maximum 700-mb
winds from the latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
mission were 93 kt, the peak SFMR values were only 68 kt. A blend of
these data with some undersampling due to the large size of Teddy
gives an initial wind speed of 80 kt.

The hurricane is beginning to accelerate to the north-northeast as
the long-awaited mid-latitude trough begins to pick up the cyclone.
All of the guidance is in very good agreement that Teddy will
benefit from this interaction, growing in both size and maximum
winds due to this trough and warmer waters in the Gulf Stream.
Thus, the hurricane should intensify overnight, and the new
intensity forecast is close to the latest GFS model.  Afterward,
the baroclinic energy source is exhausted, and Teddy should move
north of the Gulf Stream by Wednesday, helping to complete its
post-tropical transition.  The cyclone should weaken while it
accelerates to the north-northeast across eastern Nova Scotia, the
Gulf of St. Lawrence, and Newfoundland before dissipating in 3-4
days. No significant changes were made to the track forecast.

Teddy's size will likely increase substantially during the next
couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with the
aforementioned frontal system. Gale force winds are likely along
portions of the near shore waters of the northeast U.S. Please see
products from your local office for more information about marine
hazards.
• RAMMB Multi-Model Diagnostic Comparison •
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT SEPTEMBER 22 2020, 0900 UTC.

$$
Forecaster Knack
• OFFICIAL FWC-N FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •

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