• STORM FLOATER •
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26L (DELTA)
PUBLIC ADVISORY #2
FORCE THIRTEEN SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE
1030 UTC WED OCT 7 2020

...DELTA MAKING CLOSE CONTACT WITH THE YUCATAN...

SUMMARY OF 0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR 20.6 N 86.4 W...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115MPH...185KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico


DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
Satellite images show very deep convection associated with Delta, 
with extremely cold cloud-top temperatures to -97C noted southwest 
of the center overnight.  However, this structure has not resulted 
in a stronger cyclone, and the full NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
mission actually indicated that Delta has significantly weakened 
since earlier today.  The maximum flight-level winds were 98 kt, 
with SFMR values near 90 kt.  Early in the mission, the flight 
director indicated that the eyewall had dissipated, but on the last 
fix, she noted that the eyewall had re-formed.  Recent Cuban radar 
data also indicate that at least a partial eyewall is present, so 
the initial wind speed is generously kept at 100 kt.

Delta should begin to re-intensify late today as it moves into an 
area of fairly warm and deep waters, with fairly light shear.  The 
regional hurricane models all show Delta attaining category 4 status 
in 36-48 hours, and so does the NHC forecast. As Delta approaches 
the Louisiana coast, lower oceanic heat content and an increase in 
shear is likely to cause some weakening before landfall. The NHC 
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, and leans on 
the stronger regional hurricane models.  I should also note that all 
of the guidance show Delta becoming considerably larger than it is 
now by the time it reaches the northern Gulf coast, so even if 
weakening occurs there, the hurricane will likely bring a sizable 
area of hazardous conditions to the coast. 
• RAMMB Multi-Model Diagnostic Comparison •
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT OCTOBER 7 2020, 1500 UTC.

$$
Forecaster Knack
• OFFICIAL FWC-N FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •

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