YOUR SURNAME: Knack
YOUR CITY: Singapore
YOUR STATE: Singapore
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 1510 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: FELICIA THOUGHT TO STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM


INPUT INTERP ATCF: ep062021 FELICIA 20210720 1500 15.8 -138.0 E TS 35.0 1006.0 13.43 259.28
ADVISORY NUMBER: 13


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  E ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------
None.

DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
After being devoid of deep convection for 9-12 hours overnight, 
Felicia managed to redevelop a small area of convection near and 
north of its estimated low-level center. However, this convective 
activity is poorly-organized and already appears to be waning. 
Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates at 1200 UTC were T2.5/35 kt 
from SAB and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, while the latest objective ADT 
estimate was T1.5/25 kt. Given the earlier scatterometer data and 
that convection had increased somewhat since that time, the initial 
intensity is only being lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt for 
this advisory.

Despite the recent small convective burst, Felicia's large-scale 
environment remains dominated by moderate to strong northwesterly 
vertical wind shear within a dry and stable airmass over 25-26 C 
sea-surface temperatures. Consequently, a good chunk of the 
deterministic model guidance (e.g., GFS/ECWMF/HWRF) depict Felicia 
struggling to produce much, if any, additional organized convection 
near its center.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
    

    
$$
Forecaster 
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •

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