YOUR SURNAME: Knack
YOUR CITY: Singapore
YOUR STATE: Singapore
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: HILDA IS REALY GOING TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON, VERY SOON WAIT FOR IT!


INPUT INTERP ATCF: ep082021 HILDA 20210731 2045 14.09 -117.86 E TS 60.0 994.0 9.42 281.53
ADVISORY NUMBER: 2


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)AUG 1 2021, 0900 UTC.

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  E ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
......
    
SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------

DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
After strengthening quickly overnight and early this morning,
Hilda's intensity appears to have leveled off for now.  There
continues to be hints of an eye feature in satellite images and
deep convection is organized in curved bands around that feature.
The latest Dvorak estimates are 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, 4.0/65 kt from
SAB, and 4.1/67 kt from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.  A
recent ASCAT-B overpass showed a maximum wind of around 50 kt
southeast of the center, but the coarse resolution of the
instrument is unlikely to capture the storm's true intensity.
Based on a combination of this data, the initial intensity is held
at 60 kt, but this could be a little conservative and Hilda is very
near hurricane strength.  The aforementioned ASCAT data was also
used to adjust the wind radii inward at the initial and short range
forecast times.

Steady strengthening seems likely during the next 24 to 36 hours as
the environment remains generally favorable, consisting of
relatively warm SSTs, low wind shear, and a high amount of
moisture.  The NHC intensity forecast during that time period is
the same as before and lies at the high end of the model guidance,
near HCCA.  Beyond 36 hours, however, decreasing moisture and
progressively cooler SSTs should end the strengthening trend and
gradually cause weakening during the remainder of the forecast
period.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
    

    
$$
Forecaster 
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •

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