YOUR SURNAME: Knack
YOUR CITY: Singapore
YOUR STATE: Singapore
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION WOBBLING WESTWARD


INPUT INTERP ATCF: ep092021 NINE 20210731 2045 11.6 -128.38 E TD 25.0 1008.0 3.77 277.18
ADVISORY NUMBER: 2


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)AUG 1 2021, 0900 UTC.

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  E ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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DISCUSSION
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Visible and scatterometer satellite data continue to show depression 
getting stretched further from west-to-east, with the surface 
circulation now elliptical-shaped about 500 nmi long and 250 nmi 
wide. A 1757Z ASCAT-B pass revealed an ill-defined low-level 
circulation center and one 26-kt wind vector 60-70 nmi west of the 
center. Unlike a few hours ago, deep convection has begun to wane 
with cloud tops now warmer than -70 deg C. The intensity has been 
held at 25 kt based on the ASCAT wind data and the overall poor 
appearance in satellite imagery.

The depression's future intensity, and even its existence as a 
tropical cyclone, depends heavily on the track over the next 120 
hours. A more westward motion as per the ECMWF would keep the 
cyclone over warmer water and in a more favorable upper-level 
pattern, whereas a sharp northward motion like the GFS is predicting 
would take the cyclone over cold SSTs below 25 deg C and into a 
strong wind shear environment. Another negative factor continues to 
be the west-to-east stretching of the depression's low-level wind 
field caused by Tropical Storm Hilda's larger and stronger 
circulation. As more of the southerly/southwesterly 
cross-equatorial low-level inflow gets drawn away from the elongated 
cyclone and into Hilda, most of the depression's inflow will be 
cooler and drier air trade wind flow coming into the northern 
semicircle, which would induce weakening.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
    

    
$$
Forecaster 
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •

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