YOUR SURNAME: Knack
YOUR CITY: Singapore
YOUR STATE: Singapore
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 2050 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: KEVIN CROSSES CLARION ISLAND A LITTLE STRONGER


INPUT INTERP ATCF: ep112021 KEVIN 20210810 2045 19.08 -115.48 E TS 45.0 1000.0 7.77 317.87
ADVISORY NUMBER: 5


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  E ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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DISCUSSION
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Kevin is a poorly defined tropical cyclone. A recent scatterometer 
pass shows a small enclosed low embedded in a larger, elongated 
cyclonic gyre.  This satellite wind data also indicated that the 
strongest winds associated with the cyclone are located well to the 
south of the center. Some of this data was questionable, and the 
wind retrievals greater than 45 kt were in an area of deep 
convection and likely rain contaminated. However, there were a few 
believable wind vectors outside of the convection between 40-45 kt, 
so Kevin's initial intensity has been adjusted to 45 kt, despite the 
disorganized satellite presentation.

Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist
over Kevin for the next 18-24 h, which should limit the cyclone's
ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level
moisture. By 24 h, the cyclone will begin to pass over progressively
cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Based on
this scenario
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
    

    
$$
Forecaster 
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •

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