UNIQUE IDENTIFIER: r
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 0900 UTC WED SEP 8 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: DEPRESSION FAR OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO


INPUT INTERP ATCF: ep152021 FIFTEEN 20210908 1015 18.59 -107.16 E TD 31.39 1006.0 4.98 324.83
ADVISORY NUMBER: 1


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)SEP 8 2021, 2100 UTC.

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  E ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

 
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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DISCUSSION
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The circulation of the depression has continued to become better 
defined, and there has been a substantial increase in deep 
convection within bands to the north and northeast of the center.  
However, the inner core remains slightly displaced from this 
activity, and a combination of subjective and objective intensity 
estimates supports maintaining the cyclone as a 30-kt depression 
for this advisory.

There are counteracting factors at play regarding the depression's 
future intensity.  Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be low, 
the GFS suggests that moderate to strong mid-level shear could 
develop below the outflow level during the next 24-48 hours.  Sea 
surface temperatures will be plenty warm for strengthening during 
the next 48 hours, yet upper-level divergence is not expected to be 
ideal.  Since the system's circulation appears to be improving, 
steady strengthening is forecast during the first 48 hours, and the 
depression could become a short-lived hurricane while it passes the 
Baja California peninsula.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
 

 
$$
Forecaster 

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