• STORM FLOATER •
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (SEVENTEEN)
PUBLIC ADVISORY #1
FORCE THIRTEEN SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE
1510 UTC MON SEP 21 2020

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST...

SUMMARY OF 1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR 17.0 N 112.0 W...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35MPH...55KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------
NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
 Although the circulation still appears to be elongated, the 
depression has become a little better organized during the past 
several hours, with the low-level center closer to the large mass 
of convection in the southwestern semicircle.  Satellite intensity 
estimates from TAFB and SAB are 30 kt, so the initial intensity is 
nudged upward to 30 kt. Current indications are that the current easterly shear should 
subside a little during the next 24-36 h, and this should allow the 
system to become a tropical storm.  As noted in the previous 
advisory, the intensity after 36 h will be strongly dependent on 
where the center is in relation to the strong sea surface 
temperature gradient.  The new intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous forecast based on the forecast track keeping the 
system over 25-26C water temperatures through 120 h.  However, any 
motion north of the forecast track would bring the center over 
colder water and lead to a system weaker than forecast, while any 
motion south of the track would keep it over warmer water and 
possibly allow the cyclone to become a hurricane.  As might have 
guessed, this is a low confidence intensity forecast.
• RAMMB Multi-Model Diagnostic Comparison •
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT SEPTEMBER 22 2020, 0900 UTC.

$$
Forecaster Knack
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •

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