• STORM FLOATER •
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE)
PUBLIC ADVISORY #9
FORCE THIRTEEN SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE
1520 UTC MON OCT 5 2020

...MARIE WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW...

SUMMARY OF 1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR 21.1 N 131.9 W...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60MPH...95KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------
NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
The remains of the deep convection associated with Marie continues 
to get further displaced from the exposed low-level center due 
strong upper-level westerly winds, with the gap now over 100 n mi 
between those two features. The various satellite intensity 
estimates suggest that the current intensity may only be 45 kt. 
However, due to fair number of 55-kt wind vectors on the ASCAT 
overpass early this morning, the intensity is conservatively being 
lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. Marie is expected to weaken over 
the next few days in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind 
shear, over SSTs cooler that 25 degrees C, surrounded by a dry and 
stable airmass. With the convection now displaced so far from the 
center, and no regeneration of convection near the center 
anticipated, Marie is now forecast to become a remnant low by 
Tuesday night. This could happen even sooner if the current trend 
continues.
• RAMMB Multi-Model Diagnostic Comparison •
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

THIS IS THE LAST REGULARLY SCHEDULED BULLETIN, NO MORE BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED.

$$
Forecaster Knack
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •

©2020 Force Thirteen • Cyclone Tracker • Text Products