Cyclone Awa Text Products

PUBLIC ADVISORY

FORECAST AND WIND PROBS

CYCLONE 01S (AWA)
PUBLIC ADVISORY #8
FORCE THIRTEEN HQ MANCHESTER UK
1800 UTC SUN JAN 12 2020

...AWA A POWERFUL CYCLONE NEAR MADAGASCAR...

SUMMARY OF 1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR 16.0 S 43.8 E
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115MPH...185KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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HURRICANE WARNING
Soalala to Maintirano, Madagascar
HURRICANE WATCH
Maintirano to Andranopasy, Madagascar

DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
Cyclone Awa has intensified to reach Category 3 status, and further strengthening is
possible as the storm parallels the coast of the Madagascan province of Melaky.
Awa has so far taken full advantage of favourable conditions, with landfall 
interaction not a major problem at the moment, since the hurricane force winds 
remain offshore.
Nonetheless, any slight deviations from the forecast track could lead to hurricane
conditions being felt along the coast sooner rather than later - at present, this is
only likely to occur tomorrow morning and further south.
Wind shear is expected to increase tomorrow, but with warm sea surface temperatures,
the forecast is set for the storm to intensify slightly and remain a Category 3 
storm until its eventual landfall somewhere along the western coast.

Cyclone Destruction Potential Scale rating: 4
Even though the area of impact contains sparse populations, the anticipated impacts 
in towns along the coast is expected to be extensive.

NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT 0000 UTC

$$
FORECASTER FOY