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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06 (INVEST 95S)
PUBLIC ADVISORY #3
FORCE THIRTEEN SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE
1850 UTC THU JAN 23 2020

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES EASTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR 18.8 S 50.8 E
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30MPH...50KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005MB
MOVEMENT...EAST AT 15MPH

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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...ORANGE CYCLONE ALERT...
*LA RÉUNION

...CLASS #1 WARNING...
*MAURITIUS

Please Visit Mauritius Meteorological Services for local warnings, or visit MétéoFrance for official track forecast.
DISCUSSION
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Tropical Disturbance 06 (Invest 95S) continues out from northern Madagascar, moving due east and closer to the Mascarene islands. This system is currently producing some areas of shower and thunderstorm activity, together with the monsoon trough, near the center of the system. This system is expected to continue out in the open waters of the Southwest Indian Ocean where it has a higher chance of developing into a moderate tropical storm, north of the Mascarene islands. Latest microwave pass from DMSP-F17 indicates that this system is producing a healthy convection over at the center of the system. Wind shear is  low to moderate at 10-15KTS and expected to remain this way. Sea surface temperatures remains favorable at 28-29C and expected to remain at 28-29C as it moves southeast towards the Mascarene islands. Models are in general agreement that this system is expected to move east with a fair chance of strengthening while north of the Mascarene islands, before traversing further east and could still intensify from there.

Please visit MétéoFrance for official forecasts and warnings.



$$
Forecaster Knack

OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST

MÉTÉOFRANCE FORECAST