EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER)
***FINAL BULLETIN***
PUBLIC ADVISORY #8
FORCE THIRTEEN SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE
1850 UTC THU FEB 27 2020

...ESTHER NOT LIKELY TO MOVE OFFSHORE FOR INTENSIFICATION...

SUMMARY OF 1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR 15.2 S 128.9 E
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40MPH...65KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
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Ex-Tropical Cyclone Esther continues inland near the border separating Northern Territory and Western Australia. This system is currently producing large areas of convection spiralling into the center of the system, with large blowup of thunderstorm activity northeast of the Dampier Peninsula near coastal Timor Sea. Wind shear is low at 5-10KTS and expected to remain generally this way, before increasing slowly to unfavorable levels. Sea surface temperatures in the open waters off the coast of Kimberley remains extremely favorable for tropical development at 30-31C and expected to remain this way, but this system is not expected to move directly over waters. Models are indicating that this system is expected to move into Western Australia east of the Dampier Peninsula and remain inland. Nevertheless, Esther is expected to bring in moisture-rich air inland and allow for possible Brown Ocean Effect which may sporadically let Esther intensify. Esther is expected to remain below Tropical Cyclone intensity as it nears the coast of Kimberly, inland, where it is not likely to intensify back into a Tropical Cyclone. Bureau of Meteorology indicates that this system is expected to remain as a Tropical Low as it continues west and near the Kimberley coast, while remaining inland.

LOCAL SOURCES BELOW:
Bureau of Meteorology, Northern Territory
Bureau of Meteorology, Western Australia

THIS IS THE LAST REGULARLY SCHEDULED BULLETIN, NO MORE BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED.

$$
Forecaster Knack

OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST