686. Tropical Cyclone Habana » Text Products

May 18th, 2021 at 07:09 AM

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2 years ago

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PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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DISCUSSION
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OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE STRUCTURE HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED
LEAVING A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 5.5+. FOLLOWING THIS ANALYSIS, WE CAN
ESTIMATE WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 95KT, RANKING HABANA AT THE THRESHOLD
OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LAST EXPLOITABLE SSMIS OF 2337UTC
SHOW HOWEVER THE APPEARANCE OF A SECOND ZONE OF REFLECTIVITY FURTHER
FROM THE CENTER. THIS STRUCTURE LOOKS LIKE AN ERC, STARTED A LITTLE
AFTER 18UTC YESTERDAY. IN ANY CASE HABANA IS IN A PHASE OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WHICH COULD BE GENERATED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY AN
ERC. THE ABSENCE OF MORE RECENT MICROWAVE DATA DOES NOT ALLOW TO
VALIDATE THIS HYPOTHESIS, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE STRUCTURE CLOSEST
TO THE CENTER.

NO CHANGE: HABANA MAINTAINS ITS WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
THURSDAY ON, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHWESTWARD DIVE TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, GENERATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. HABANA SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTH ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY, THEN SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, SCENARIO CHOSEN BY THE
RSMC. THE MAIN MODELS START TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO BUT A
MODERATE DISPERSION STILL PERSISTS FROM SATURDAY ON ON THE TIMING AND
SPEED OF THE TURN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ALMOST ALL THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT TO ALLOW HABANA TO CONTINUE TO REINTENSIFY
RAPIDLY, ONLY THE SHEAR COULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO SHORT TIME
SCALES. ITS SMALL SIZE IS ALSO AN ASSET FOR THIS RAPID
REINTENSIFICATION. THIS PHILOSOPHY ON INTENSITY FORECASTS CONTINUES
UNTIL SATURDAY, KEEPING IN MIND THAT DURING THIS PERIOD THE
TRIGGERING OF AN ERC (EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE) COULD INDUCE STRONG
VARIATIONS (WEAKENING/INTENSIFICATION) IN INTENSITY. FROM SATURDAY
AND THEN MORE CLEARLY ON SUNDAY, A VERY PROGRESSIVE INCREASE IN SHEAR
IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE COULD START TO BRING DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE
HEART OF THE SYSTEM AND START TO WEAKEN HABANA. HOWEVER, NOT ALL
MODELS AGREE ON THE PRESENCE OF SATURDAY'S SHEAR, WHICH COULD OCCUR
LATER. THERE IS THEREFORE A GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ON THIS
INTENSITY FORECAST, BOTH IN THE SHORT AND LONGER TERM.

OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
MeteoFrance La Reunion
    
NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT 
    
$$
Forecaster