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PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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Watch zone: Mornington Island to Aurukun including Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw.

DISCUSSION
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The satellite signature of tropical low 11U has remained overall steady during
the last 6 hours. Loose banding has developed through the western and northern
flanks, while a separate area of convection has persisted to the southeast of
the estimated low level centre. The 00Z ASCAT pass suggested the centre remained
slightly elongated, and current satellite and radar imagery suggests the system
still has yet to consolidate around a single well defined centre. 11U was
located using a combination of radar, satellite, and surface observations.
Proximal surface pressures from the latter indicate the surface centre may be
further from the coast than recent radar imagery would suggest.

Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with an 0.35 wrap, giving DT
2.0. FT is also 2.0. Intensity is estimated at 25 knots based on the morning
ASCAT pass.

CIMSS satellite winds depict the system lying under highly diffluent upper level
flow with well defined outflow channels to the north and south. Deep layer wind
shear over the system is estimated at about 15 knots easterly, which has reduced
considerably from the 00Z estimate. Sea surface temperatures are around 30 to 31
degrees. The evolution of this environment is somewhat complex, but most NWP
guidance suggests the upper level shortwave to the south will rotate northwards
over the system in the next 12 to 18 hours. This would result in a period of
increased westerly shear overnight, followed by another decrease. The system's
proximity to land is another complicating factor. Deterministic NWP guidance
suggests continued development of the system through the next 48 hours, as does
the latest SHIPS guidance. 

Overnight, the steering influences on the system are expected to become weak
with mid-level ridges to the southwest and northeast. The system is therefore
likely to stall over the eastern Gulf for a period. In the longer term the
northern steering ridge is expected to become dominant as the southern ridge is
eroded by a mid-level trough. From late in the week the system should recommence
easterly motion, crossing Cape York Peninsula and potentially emerging into the
Coral Sea.

Given the current and forecast favourable environment for development, it is
likely that the system will intensify to at least category 2 over the Gulf,
possibly category 3 depending on how much time it spends over water. However
some uncertainty exists with some guidance suggesting it may cross the coast
before tropical cyclone development can occur.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
Bureau of Meteorology
    

    
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