Typhoon Hagibis Text Products

TYPHOON HAGIBIS

PUBLIC ADVISORY #05
Force Thirteen ST.LOUIS MO
0300 UTC October 7th 2019

...HIGIBIS A MAJOR TYPHOON, INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY. CATEGORY 5 STATUS IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 0300 UTC INFORMATION

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MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 130 MPH... 115 KTS

PRESSURE...945 MB... 27.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN, TINIAN, ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN ISLANDS IN THE CNMI. TYPHOON CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE, ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA, AND AGRIHAN ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE, ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS, LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.




A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE, REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

 

DISCUSSION

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INTITAL INTENSITY: 

HAGIBIS IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING, WITH RAW SATIED DATA SHOWING WINDS UP TO 152 MPH, WITH DIVORAK NOW SHOWING WINDS UP TO 165MPH. WITH SUCH RAPID IMPROVEMENT SINCE THE 100MPH THREE HOURS AGO, AND DUE TO HOW QUICKLY THIS EPISODE HAS TAKEN PLACE WE HAVE GONE WITH 130MPH AND A PRESSURE OF 946MB, MAKING THIS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DEADLY CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON.


FORECAST: 

THE TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND HWRF GUIDANCE FROM 00Z MODEL RUNS. SHOWING A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT WITH TIME IN THS STORMS MOTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORMS TRACK FORECAST UP TO FOVE DAYS OUT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS PUT INTO SCCOUNT THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFYCATION EPISODE THAT IS TAKING PLACE. WITH THIS BEING SAID IT IS VERY HARD TO PREDICT THE INTENSITY OF THIS STORM IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTS SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE STORM TO CONTIMUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND HAVE A CLASSIC PINHOLE EYE APPEARANCE. WITH AN EXCELLENT APPEARANCE EXPECTED AND CONTINUED GRADUAL INTENSIFYCATION AFTER THIS RI EPISODE, AN INTENSITY OF 165MPH OR 145 KNOTS IS EXPECTED IN 12 HOURS. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY 24 HOURS WITH THE STORM AT 175 MPH OR 150 KNOTS BY THAT TIME. THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS THE STORM WILL HAVE AVALABLE. BY 36 HOURS THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK WITH WINDS AT 180MPH, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AS THE ONLY THING STANDING IN THE STORMS WAY AT THIS POINT WILL BE ITS MAXIMUM POTANTIAL INTENSITY (200MPH+), AND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. AFTER ITS PEAK GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS PRESSURE RISES AND THE STORM EXPANDS. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO GROW VERY LARGE AS IT GRADUALY WEAKENS AND MY BEGIN TO BRING IMPACTS TO JAPAN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SIMULATED SATELLITE FROM THE HWRF, AND THE GFS BOTH SHOW OUTER BANDS OF THIS STORM IMPACTING JAPAN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.







INT… 130MPH 

12 HRS… 165MPH

24 HRS… 175MPH

36 HRS… 180MPH

48 HRS… 175MPH

72 HRS… 165MPH 

96 HRS… 140MPH

120 HRS… 120MPH




$$

Forecaster SCHWENT