UNIQUE IDENTIFIER: r
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 1800 UTC MON AUG 23 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: OMAIS STILL A TRACEABLE TROPICAL STORM AS IT DEPARTS SOUTH KOREA INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN


INPUT INTERP ATCF: wp162021 OMAIS 20210823 0915 35.7 129.5 W TS 55 996.0 25.52 31.47
ADVISORY NUMBER: 14


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  W ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

 
......
 
SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
TS OMAIS IS LOCATED AT 36.0N, 129.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. 

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.

THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
Japan Meteorological Agency
 

 
$$
Forecaster 

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