UNIQUE IDENTIFIER: r
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 0900 UTC WED SEP 8 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: I AM SPEECHLESS. “MICROSCOPIC” CHANTHU BECOMES BARELY DETECTABLE EVEN ON THE MOST ADVANCED MICROWAVE SATELLITES AND IS NOW DEMEED TO BE A CATEOGRY 5 SUPER TYPHOON


INPUT INTERP ATCF: wp192021 CHANTHU 20210908 1015 15.47 130.6 W ST 138.61 922.0 9.25 261.35
ADVISORY NUMBER: 1


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)SEP 8 2021, 1800 UTC.

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  W ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

 
......
 
SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------

DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
 TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 15.7N, 131.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
  THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.

  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
  TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
  UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
  DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.

  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
  REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
  CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
Japan Meteorological Agency
 

 
$$
Forecaster 

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