October’s activity in the Atlantic Ocean continues in the form of Invest 97L, located in the Bay of Campeche, or the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center originally gave 97L a 30% chance of development in 48 hours and 5 days, but that was updated to 50% in a Special Tropical Weather Outlook at 9:50 AM EDT. Based on current satellite appearance, designation as a Tropical Depression seems likely today. Organization of 97L meets the requirements of a tropical cyclone, and the center of circulation is very close — if not completely closed off. Most models keep 97L short lived, as it is forecast to merge with an incoming cold front this weekend, which will cause high shear over the system, along with slightly cooler water temperatures due to previous Subtropical Storm Nestor.
97L will cause rough surf, occasional gusts to 40mph, and heavy rainfall along the coasts of Mexico, and the Western Gulf Coast of the US. Stay tuned to your local National Weather Service offices along the US Gulf Coast, the Mexico Weather Agency, and Force Thirteen’s outlets for the latest on 97L.