Following the demise of the once powerful Cyclone Harold, we have a potentially dangerous outbreak of severe weather on the charts today, verified by a Moderate (MDT) risk on the Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Day 1 Convective Outlook, centered in the Southeastern US.
There is an overall MDT risk for severe weather (Wind, Hail and Tornadic), which is the second highest possible risk only behind the rare HIGH risk. Cities within each risk area include:
- MDT – Atlanta, GA, Birmingham, AL, Montgomery, AL, Columbus, GA, Jackson, MS
- ENH – Memphis, TN, Nashville, TN, Shreveport, LA, Mobile, AL, Little Rock, AR
- SLGT – Dallas, TX, Columbus, OH, Charlotte, NC, New Orleans, LA, Tulsa, OK
- MRGL – Fort Worth, TX, Oklahoma City, OK, Kansas City, MO, Arlington, TX, Irving, TX
Severe weather will develop throughout Texas today and move through the southeastern US before travelling up the US East Coast after passing through Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.
Tornadoes are a likely product of this outbreak, with the most likely exposure in Northeastern LA, MS, AL and Western GA. Strong tornadoes of EF3 or higher are possible throughout these locations and most others highlighted in the above graphic.
Heavy winds are extremely likely in this situation everywhere highlighted in the graphic above with the most likely areas of exposure being Southern AR, Northern MS, Northwestern AL and Southwestern TN, associated with the 45% risk shown in pink. Such winds however, can occur in any of the highlighted areas above.
While a more contained risk comparatively, there is a significant area of exposure to potential hail impacts associated with the impending severe weather outbreak today with the most likely chance of exposure being centered in Eastern TX, Southeastern OK, Southern AR, Northern LA, MS and Western-Central AL, associated with the 30% colored red. Despite this, hail impacts are possible anywhere associated with a highlight above.
For further information, refer to your local meteorological office. Force Thirteen is also providing more updates on this and other storms around the world on their youtube channel, facebook and twitter accounts. Stay safe, and have a Happy Easter!