Tropical Storm Eloise is located 457 km northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, and has tracked west-southwestward at 31 km/h (17 knots) over the past 6 hours. Infrared satellite imagery shows persistent, deep convection wrapping into an obscured low level circulation center that has reemerged over water. These favorable conditions are expected to continue in 2 days and result in a peak intensity of 165 km/h by this time. The system will continue to track along the steering subtropical ridge and make landfall near Beira, Mozambique in the next 2 to 3 days, with further intensification likely to occur prior to landfall.
Thereafter, the system will begin to dissipate over land due to increasing wind shear and interaction with the underlying terrain and complete dissipation over land in 4 days. Forecast models are in tight agreement with 173 nautical miles spread in across track solutions at landfall.
CURRENT INFORMATION AND FORECAST: