Justine CA, Author at Force Thirteen https://www.force-13.com/author/justineca Worldwide Cyclone Tracking Since 2011 Tue, 21 Feb 2023 15:43:25 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.1 https://www.force-13.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/cropped-F13Blue-32x32.png Justine CA, Author at Force Thirteen https://www.force-13.com/author/justineca 32 32 Furious Freddy to Make Landfall in Madagascar https://www.force-13.com/news/furious-freddy-to-make-landfall-in-madagascar https://www.force-13.com/news/furious-freddy-to-make-landfall-in-madagascar#respond Tue, 21 Feb 2023 15:15:39 +0000 https://www.force-13.com/?p=11843 [credit]Credit: EUMETSAT[/credit] Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy is quickly approaching Madagascar, posing a serious threat to...

The post Furious Freddy to Make Landfall in Madagascar appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
[credit]Credit: EUMETSAT[/credit]

Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy is quickly approaching Madagascar, posing a serious threat to the country’s Central and Southernmost regions.

Latest Information

On the latest Meteo France bulletin, Freddy was last located at 20.7S 49.5E, or about 100 kilometers (62 miles) off the Madagascar coast.

The agency estimated the storm to have 10-minute maximum sustained winds of 150 kph (80 knots / 90 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 965 hectopascals.

The cyclone is moving towards west-southwest at a speed of 28 kph (15 knots / 17 kph).

Current Warnings

The Meteo Madagascar’s latest warning map of Freddy

Red Cyclone Warning is hoisted over the regions of:

  • Amoron’i Mania
  • Matsiatra Ambony
  • Ihorombe
  • Fitovinany
  • Vatovavy
  • Southern Districts of Atsinanana (Antanambao Manampontsy, Vatomandry, Marolambo, Mahanoro)

Yellow Cyclone Warning is placed over the regions of:

  • Vakinankaratra
  • Atsimo-Atsinanana
  • Remainder of Atsinanana
  • Southernmost District of Alaotra-Mangoro (Anosibe An’ala)
  • Southern Districts of Menabe (Morondava, Mahabo, Manja)
  • Northern Districts of Atsimo-Andrefana (Beroroha, Morombe, Ankazoabo, Toliera II and Sakaraha

Green Cyclone Warning is placed over the regions of:

  • Remainder of Menabe
  • Itasy
  • Analamanga, including Antananarivo
  • Southern District of Alaotra-Mangoro (Moramanga)

Cyclone Risks

The latest HWRF model rainfall forecast for Freddy.

Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy is forecast to make landfall over Madagascar shortly after the release of this article. The storm then will move over the island nation and enter the Mozambique channel on Wednesday afternoon. Significant wind, and flood damage, and storm surge over coastal areas under a cyclone warning are expected.

Local authorities in Mozambique, meanwhile, issued warnings on expected heavy rains for the Zambesi River as the cyclone is forecast to make landfall in Mozambique later next week, likely as a strong tropical storm or a lower-end category 1 equivalent cyclone. The Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology is expected to raise cyclone warning once Cyclone Freddy comes out of the Mozambique Channel.

If the local officials advised you to evacuate in preparation for the storm, please heed their advice. You can always check their social media sites for and follow developments from us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube as the storm approaches land.

The post Furious Freddy to Make Landfall in Madagascar appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
https://www.force-13.com/news/furious-freddy-to-make-landfall-in-madagascar/feed 0
Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy: A Looming Threat to Madagascar https://www.force-13.com/news/intense-tropical-cyclone-freddy-a-looming-threat-to-madagascar https://www.force-13.com/news/intense-tropical-cyclone-freddy-a-looming-threat-to-madagascar#respond Fri, 17 Feb 2023 14:15:28 +0000 https://www.force-13.com/?p=11674 Latest Information Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy continues to roam across the Southern Indian Ocean and...

The post Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy: A Looming Threat to Madagascar appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
Latest Information

Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy continues to roam across the Southern Indian Ocean and increasingly becoming a threat to Mauritius, La Reunion, and Madagascar. On the latest Force Thirteen analysis, the storm was last located at 15.8S 74.0E or about 1,180 kilometers (733 miles) west-northwest of Rodrigues, Mauritius. It is estimated that the storm is  packing 1-minute sustained winds of 250 kph (135 knots / 155 mph,) with a minimum central pressure of 930 hPa and moving westward at a speed of 26 kph (16mph.)

Force Thirteen Discussion:

Freddy has redeveloped significantly during the daytime, with Central Dense Overcast (CDO) cooling as the spikes went at all quadrants. The current intensity estimate of Freddy is determined by subjective Dvorak 6.5 estimate (127kt) while going to the upper end of the range uncertainty due to extraordinary eye temperature and very symmetric CDO. AMSR2 at 0900z also retrieved 114-116kt (10min) winds, which is equivalent to 120-125kt with moderate uncertainty due to no available calibration algorithm/research. And since then the CDO is rapidly developing, with a resounding stadium effect and eye temperature warmed considerably to 20C, as shown in enhanced infrared satellite imagery. Unfortunately, other objective estimates are available as CIMSS estimates are not available again at this crucial moment until 1200z. As a result, it is also noted that the uncertainty of the estimate is higher than usual with only the Dvorak technique available.

Meteo Madagascar Forecast Cone and Warning on Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy

 

Current Warnings

Green Cyclone Warning is raised over the regions of:

  • Analanjirofo
  • Atsinanana
  • Fitovinany
  • Vatovavy
  • Atsimo-Atsinanana

Upgrade to yellow and red cyclone warnings are expected for the coastal regions in the coming days. More areas are expected to be under cyclone warnings as the storm approaches.

 

 

Cyclone Risks

Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy is forecast to approach the island of Rodrigues on Sunday, 19 February, and then Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday, 20 February. The outer periphery of the storm is expected to bring gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, and dangerous swells.

HWRF Rain Swath Forecast Showing rainfall of at least 100 mm (4 inches) on the coastal region of Central Madagascar

The cyclone is then expected to make landfall over Madagascar in the early hours of Wednesday, 22 February. The storm is still expected to be strong at the time of the landfall with significant wind and flood damage expected. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs notes that still tens of thousands of people are still homeless in the aftermath of Cyclone Cheneso making it difficult to the authorities to move them away from the storm’s path.

Local authorities in Mozambique, meanwhile, issued warnings on expected heavy rains for the Zambesi River as the cyclone is forecast to make landfall in Mozambique later next week.

If the local officials advised you to evacuate in preparation for the storm, please heed their advice. You can always check their social media sites for and follow developments from us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube as the storm approaches land.

The post Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy: A Looming Threat to Madagascar appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
https://www.force-13.com/news/intense-tropical-cyclone-freddy-a-looming-threat-to-madagascar/feed 0
Cyclone Freddy Ramping up Again – Tropical Weather Bulletin – February 15, 2023 https://www.force-13.com/news/cyclone-freddy-ramping-up-again-tropical-weather-bulletin-february-15-2023 https://www.force-13.com/news/cyclone-freddy-ramping-up-again-tropical-weather-bulletin-february-15-2023#respond Wed, 15 Feb 2023 01:06:59 +0000 https://www.force-13.com/?p=11665 Cyclone Freddy has already been active for over a week and is strengthening once more...

The post Cyclone Freddy Ramping up Again – Tropical Weather Bulletin – February 15, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
Cyclone Freddy has already been active for over a week and is strengthening once more towards Category 4 status this morning. Now located halfway across the Indian Ocean, Freddy is expected to remain at a fairly low latitude and sail westwards towards the Mascarene islands, which are becoming increasingly likely targets for impacts next week. Later, the storm is expected to impact Madagascar and stall in the Mozambique channel, before turning southeastwards and eventually becoming post-tropical in the first days of March. The long-term forecast particularly is uncertain, and significant changes are possible as the situation evolves. Currently, Freddy is opening out an eye with a decent eyewall and is likely to reach Category 4 status soon. Elsewhere, Dingani and Gabrielle turned post-tropical and are moving out to sea in the higher latitudes towards Antarctica. Meanwhile, an area of interest in the Gulf of Carpentaria is expected to deliver large amounts of rainfall to the Cape York Peninsula and around the Cairns region this week, with up to 700mm possible in some locations. The chances of development into a tropical cyclone are falling, but may still occur briefly in the 2-3 days it has before moving inland.

Watch the full Tropical Weather Bulletin using this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1np6BcUz-M

The post Cyclone Freddy Ramping up Again – Tropical Weather Bulletin – February 15, 2023 appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
https://www.force-13.com/news/cyclone-freddy-ramping-up-again-tropical-weather-bulletin-february-15-2023/feed 0
Cyclone Freddy, a Long-Term Threat to Madagascar https://www.force-13.com/news/cyclone-freddy-a-long-term-threat-to-madagascar https://www.force-13.com/news/cyclone-freddy-a-long-term-threat-to-madagascar#respond Tue, 14 Feb 2023 15:19:39 +0000 https://www.force-13.com/?p=11635 Cyclone Freddy has intensified back into a category 3 storm, staging a long-term threat to...

The post Cyclone Freddy, a Long-Term Threat to Madagascar appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
Cyclone Freddy has intensified back into a category 3 storm, staging a long-term threat to Madagascar. Freddy’s eye once again appeared in infrared radar, as the hot tower at the northern quadrant wraps up shear to fix its weak southeast quadrant. Force Thirteen’s 12Z analysis locates the storm’s center at 15.3 degrees South and 89.9 degrees East, moving west at 18 kilometers per hour. And as for the storm’s intensity, it is estimated to have wind speeds of 115mph under the high consensus of T5.5 estimate in subjective Dvorak, and its pressure is estimated at 960 hPa based on the Courtney-Knaff-Zehr wind-pressure relationship. Moving on to the storm system’s location, Freddy was located approximately 1690 miles away from Carnarvon, 1830 miles from Geraldton, and 2000 miles from Perth. There are no alerts currently active as of now regarding Cyclone Freddy.

JTWC’s Latest Forecast Cone on Cyclone Freddy as it moves in a generally westward motion

After about 5 days, it is expected that Cyclone Freddy will generate swells towards Madagascar and Mauritius due to Freddy’s outer circulation, which rough areas pose threat to water activities nearshore. The sea surface temperatures around Freddy are getting warmer to around 28 degrees Celsius, which favors further development in the next few days. And by the JTWC forecast cone, it is expected that Freddy will become a 110kt (205km/h) Category 3 system after a few days, though based on recent rapid development, it could intensify significantly in short order.

 

 

ECMWF forecast Cyclone Freddy to make landfall over Madagascar and Mozambique over the next 10 days.

Moving on towards models prediction on Freddy, models have a high consensus in its track under stern westward steering current from the subtropical ridge, while the trough-ridge interaction next week remains a major uncertainty based on ECMWF and GFS which the turn determines whether Freddy will strike Madagascar or not later next week.

We advise residents of the aforementioned areas to watch the development of Cyclone Freddy as uncertainty still looms over the system.

This article is written by Dino Wun and formatted by Kenneth Chan.

 

 

 

The post Cyclone Freddy, a Long-Term Threat to Madagascar appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
https://www.force-13.com/news/cyclone-freddy-a-long-term-threat-to-madagascar/feed 0
Major Hurricane Ian to Bring Catastrophic Damage to Florida https://www.force-13.com/major-hurricane-ian-to-bring-catastrophic-damage-to-florida https://www.force-13.com/major-hurricane-ian-to-bring-catastrophic-damage-to-florida#respond Wed, 28 Sep 2022 14:37:03 +0000 https://www.force-13.com/?p=11084 Major Hurricane Ian is inching closer to Florida’s southwestern coast and is set to bring...

The post Major Hurricane Ian to Bring Catastrophic Damage to Florida appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
Major Hurricane Ian is inching closer to Florida’s southwestern coast and is set to bring catastrophic damage to millions of people living in the Sunshine State. The National Hurricane Center describes the effect to be “catastrophic” and “life-threatening”.

Sandbags along the coast placed in preparation in Bonita Beach

LATEST INFORMATION

The National Hurricane Center 10AM update on Major Hurricane Ian states the storm is located at 26.2°N 82.7°W, or about 60 miles (95 km) west of Naples, Florida, or about 65 miles (105 km) southwest of Punta Gordo, Florida. The reconnaissance mission flying over the storm, as of the writing, finds the storm to have maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 155 mph (135 kts / 250 kph) with gusts reaching up to 190 mph (165 kt / 305 kph.) The reconnaissance mission also found out the storm’s minimum central pressure is 937 millibars and is moving towards north-northeast at a speed of 10 mph (9 kts / 17 kph.)

CURRENT WARNINGS

The NHC Surface Wind Field graphic of Ian with watches and warnings highlighted

Hurricane Warning is in effect over Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and Dry Tortugas.

Storm Surge Warning is hoisted over Suwannee River southward to Flamingo, Tampa Bay, Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West, Dry Tortugas, Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River, and St. Johns River.

Tropical Storm Warning is in raised over the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas, Indian Pass to the Anclote River, all of the Florida Keys, Flamingo to South Santee River, Flamingo to Chokoloskee, Lake Okeechobee, Florida Bay, and Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands.

Storm Surge Watch is in effect over Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big, Pine Key, Florida Bay, and the mouth of St. Mary’s River to South Santee River.

WHAT TO EXPECT?

NHC Storm Surge Forecast showing life-threatening storm surge in Central and Southwestern Florida

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause coastal areas to be flooded by the rising waters brought by the storm. Storm surge of up to 18 feet is forecast by the NHC from Englewood to Bonita Beach, and the Charlotte Harbor— that is almost two-stories high if you have a house next to a coast. Storm surges in other parts of the Florida west coast are still life-threatening and could see up to 12 feet.

WINDS: Tropical Storm conditions are currently being felt over central and southwestern Florida, with Hurricane winds coming from the coast as the storms approach Florida Peninsula. These winds can severely damage infrastructures like homes and office buildings, uproot trees, and take down electric poles that could prevent any vehicles trying to get out of the storm.

RAIN: Totals of up to 18 inches, with local totals up to 24 inches are forecast for central and northeastern Florida, including Fort Myers, Tampa, and Orlando. The Florida Keys, south Florida, eastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina could receive as much as 8 inches of rain. These amount of rain is likely to cause flash flooding and coastal flooding especially those that would receive at least a foot of rain. Combined with storm surge, coastal areas are likely to experience higher flood.

TORNADOES: Formation and landfall of tornadoes across central Florida is possible, bringing additional damage to areas to be affected.

Please follow all orders of the local government if you still haven’t. Time has run out to do any significant preparation to the storm, and brace for catastrophic landfall. Force Thirteen hopes everyone that will be affected by the storm will be safe as the storm passes through the state. You can also watch the live landfall coverage of Ian here:

The post Major Hurricane Ian to Bring Catastrophic Damage to Florida appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
https://www.force-13.com/major-hurricane-ian-to-bring-catastrophic-damage-to-florida/feed 0
Major Hurricane Ian Makes Landfall in Cuba, Set to Impact Florida https://www.force-13.com/major-hurricane-ian-makes-landfall-in-cuba-set-to-impact-florida https://www.force-13.com/major-hurricane-ian-makes-landfall-in-cuba-set-to-impact-florida#respond Tue, 27 Sep 2022 14:42:27 +0000 https://www.force-13.com/?p=11071 Major Hurricane Ian is set to continue intensification after its landfall and short land interaction...

The post Major Hurricane Ian Makes Landfall in Cuba, Set to Impact Florida appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
Major Hurricane Ian is set to continue intensification after its landfall and short land interaction over western Cuba. The storm’s eye emerged to the Gulf of Mexico as it is forecast to affect Florida, and make considerable damage on the Tampa Bay Area.

LATEST INFORMATION

On the 8AM EST advisory of the National Hurricane Center, Major Hurricane Ian was last located at 22.3°N 83.7°W, or about 10 miles (15 km) north-northeast of the City of Piñar del Rio, Cuba, or about 130 miles (240 km) south-southwest of Dry Tortugas, Florida. The storm packs 1-minute sustained winds of 125 mph (205 kph / 110 kts) and gusts reaching up to 155 mph (250 kph / 135 kts.) The storm was estimated to have a minimum central pressure of 952 millibars and is moving north at a speed of 12 mph (19 kph / 10 kts.)

CURRENT WARNINGS

Latest NHC surface wind graphic of Ian, highlighting watches and warnings

Hurricane Warning is issued over the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa; Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and Dry Tortugas in Florida.

Storm Surge Warning is hoisted over Anclote River southward to Flamingo and Tampa Bay

Hurricane Watch is issued over North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River

Storm Surge Watch is issued over the Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West, Dry Tortugas, Florida Bay, Aucilla River to Anclote River, Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line, and the Saint Johns River

Tropical Storm Warning is hoisted over the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas, Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West, Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Suwannee River to the Anclote River, Volusia/Brevard County Line south to Jupiter Inlet, and Lake Okeechobee.

Tropical Storm Watch is in effect north of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Altamaha Sound to Volusia/Brevard County line, and Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet.

Empty supermarket shelves in Central Florida as people brace for Major Hurricane Ian

WHAT TO EXPECT?

TRACK AND INTENSITY: Major Hurricane Ian is forecast to slightly intensify in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico at 145 mph (120 kts / 230 kph) tomorrow. After this intensification, the storm is expected to slowly weaken up until its landfall over the Tampa Bay Area on Thursday morning.

NHC Storm Surge Forecast on Major Hurricane Ian showing up to 10 ft. of storm surge

STORM SURGE: Central Florida, including the Tampa Bay area is forecast to experience storm surge up to 10 feet. Other parts of the state could experience anywhere from 1 to 8 feet of storm surge. These storm surges could cause coastal inundation and flooding.

RAINFALL: Six inches up to a foot of rainfall is still forecast over Western Cuba as the storm rainbands continue to affect the island. In the Central portion of Florida, totals of up to 16 inches are forecast. And in the rest of the state, rain gauges could still measure up to 10 inches. This amount of rainfall will cause widespread flooding and rivers overflowing.

Central and Northern Florida to experience heavy rainfall, with Tampa Bay Area reaching up to 16 inches

WIND: Hurricane-force winds over western Cuba are still expected Tuesday, strength of these winds should reduce as the Ian moves north. Floridian west coast up to Central Florida is forecast to experience gale-force winds tonight and hurricane-force winds starting Wednesday morning. These winds could destroy homes, uproot trees, and take down electric poles.

TORNADOES: As the storm moves over the Southeastern United States, tornadoes could form on Wednesday morning.

Please heed the evacuation on several counties across the State of Florida and for more information, go to https://www.floridadisaster.org/evacuation-orders/. For more localized forecast you can refer to NWS Offices across the state like NWS Key West (https://www.weather.gov/key/), NWS Tampa Bay (https://www.weather.gov/tbw/), NWS Miami (https://www.weather.gov/mfl/), NWS Tallahassee (https://www.weather.gov/tae/), and NWS Jacksonville (https://www.weather.gov/jax/).

The post Major Hurricane Ian Makes Landfall in Cuba, Set to Impact Florida appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
https://www.force-13.com/major-hurricane-ian-makes-landfall-in-cuba-set-to-impact-florida/feed 0
Super Typhoon Noru to make Catastrophic Landfall in Northern Philippines https://www.force-13.com/super-typhoon-noru-to-make-catastrophic-landfall-in-northern-philippines https://www.force-13.com/super-typhoon-noru-to-make-catastrophic-landfall-in-northern-philippines#comments Sun, 25 Sep 2022 08:35:55 +0000 https://www.force-13.com/?p=11022 Super Typhoon Noru (PH Name: Karding) is expected to make a destructive landfall in the...

The post Super Typhoon Noru to make Catastrophic Landfall in Northern Philippines appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
PAGASA’s Latest Forecast Cone on Super Typhoon Noru (PH Name: Karding)

Super Typhoon Noru (PH Name: Karding) is expected to make a destructive landfall in the Northern Philippines. Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical, Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) stated in their 2PM PHST (06Z) bulletin, the storm is forecast to make landfall over northern Quezon Province, southern Aurora area tonight. PAGASA is not ruling out a possible landfall over the Polillo Islands in the afternoon.

 

LATEST INFORMATION

PAGASA’s 2PM (06Z) bulletin estimates the eye of the storm at 15.0°N 122.7°E or about 76 kilometers (47 mi.) east of the Polillo islands, or 115 kilometers (71 mi.) east-northeast of Infanta, Quezon in Mainland Luzon. Noru is packing 10-minute sustained winds of 195 kph (105 kt / 120 mph) with gusts reaching up to 240 kph (130 kt / 150 mph.) The agency also estimates the storm to have minimum central pressure of 920 millibars and is moving westward at a speed of 20 kph (11 kt / 12 mph.)

 

 

 

 

LATEST WARNING SIGNALS

Large portion of Luzon under various Wind Signals as Super Typhoon Noru (Karding) nears Landfall

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 5

Winds of 185 kph or higher, in the next 12 hours since initial issuance

Potential impacts of winds: Extreme threat to life and property

  • Polillo Islands
  • Extreme Northern Portion of Quezon
  • Extreme Southern Portion of Aurora
  • Eastern Portion of Bulacan
  • Extreme Southeastern Portion of Nueva Ecija

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 4

Winds of 118 to 184 kph, in the next 12 hours since initial issuance

Potential impacts of winds: Significant to severe threat to life and property

  • Calaguas Islands
  • Southern Portion of Aurora
  • Northern Portion of Quezon
  • Northern Portion of Metro Manila
  • Central and Southern Portions of Nueva Ecija
  • Rest of Bulacan
  • Pampanga
  • Northern and Central Portions of Rizal
  • Southeastern Portion of Tarlac
  • Extreme Northern Portion of Laguna

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 3

Winds of 89 to 117, in the next 18 hours since initial issuance

Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property

  • Central Portion of Aurora
  • Southeastern Portion of Nueva Vizcaya
  • Rest of Nueva Ecija
  • Tarlac
  • Zambales
  • Bataan
  • Pangasinan
  • Rest of Laguna
  • Rest of Metro Manila
  • Rest of Rizal
  • Northern Portion of Laguna
  • Northern and Central Portion of Cavite
  • Rest of Northern Quezon
  • Northern Portion of Camarines Norte

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 2

Winds of 62 to 88 kph, in the next 24 hours since initial issuance

Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

  • Southern Portion of Isabela
  • Quirino
  • Rest of Nueva Vizcaya
  • Benguet
  • La Union
  • Rest of Aurora
  • Rest of Cavite
  • Batangas
  • Rest of Laguna
  • Central Portion of Quezon
  • Rest of Camarines Norte
  • Northern Portion of Camarines Sur
  • Catanduanes

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1

Winds of 39 to 61 kph, in the next 36 hours since initial issuance

Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

  • Southern Portion of Cagayan
  • Rest of Isabela
  • Southern Portion of Apayao
  • Kalinga
  • Abra
  • Mountain Province
  • Ifugao
  • Southern Portion of Ilocos Norte
  • Ilocos Sur
  • Rest of Quezon
  • Northern Mindoro including Lubang Islands
  • Marinduque
  • Rest of Camarines Sur
  • Albay
  • Sorsogon
  • Burias and Ticao Islands

 

WHAT TO EXPECT?

PAGASA-WRF 24-Hour Rainfall Forecast shows large swath of Central and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila could see 100 millimeters of rain

 

TRACK AND INTENSITY: PAGASA forecast a landfall over Southern Quezon – Northern Aurora area at 5PM to 8PM PHST (09Z to 12Z.) An earlier landfall over Polillo Islands is not ruled out. Landfall intensity is forecast to be 185 to 205 kph (10-minute sustained.) After traversing Luzon overnight, it will emerge, still as a typhoon over the coast of Zambales or Pangasinan.

RAIN: On Sunday afternoon through Monday early morning, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over Central and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila. And from Monday early morning through early afternoon, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over western Luzon from Pangasinan to Mindoro Island including Metro Manila. With these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected. Residents in low-lying areas, next to rivers, and mountains should observe extreme precautions on these hazards.

 

WINDS: Areas under Warning Signals 4 and 5 will experience typhoon-force winds enough to severely damage infrastructures. Meanwhile, areas under Signal 2 and 3 will experience gale-force winds enough to slightly damage homes. Strong winds may also be experienced in areas under signal 1.

COASTAL INUNDATION: With storm surge forecast to reach 3 meters (10 feet) and heavy rain over coastal areas of northern Quezon including the Polillo Islands and Aurora, the risk of coastal inundation is high to very high. Coastal inundation could also happen in the coastal areas of Central Luzon, rest of Quezon, Pangasinan, and Metro Manila.

 

The post Super Typhoon Noru to make Catastrophic Landfall in Northern Philippines appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
https://www.force-13.com/super-typhoon-noru-to-make-catastrophic-landfall-in-northern-philippines/feed 1
Super Typhoon Nanmadol to Affect Majority of Japan https://www.force-13.com/super-typhoon-nanmadol-to-affect-majority-of-japan https://www.force-13.com/super-typhoon-nanmadol-to-affect-majority-of-japan#respond Sat, 17 Sep 2022 15:56:15 +0000 https://www.force-13.com/?p=10997 Super Typhoon Nanmadol is slowly weakening as it is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, but...

The post Super Typhoon Nanmadol to Affect Majority of Japan appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
Super Typhoon Nanmadol is slowly weakening as it is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, but it remains a serious concern for the main Japanese islands. Evacuation orders in Kyushu have been in place, mandating more than a million residents to evacuate as the storm is expected to make serious impacts to Kyushu, Honshu, and Shikoku Islands this weekend and up to the early parts of next week.

Latest Information

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), on its’ 23:00 JST (14:00 UTC) update, has estimated the storm location at 27.7°N 131.8°E or about 315 kilometers (195 miles) south-southeast of Yakushima City, and 450 kilometers (280 miles) south-southeast of Kagoshima City in southern Kyushu. JMA estimates the 10-minute sustained wind to be 195 kph (105 kts / 120 mph), with gusts reaching up to 280 kph (150 kts / 175 mph). The minimum central pressure estimate of the storm was 910 millibars and the storm’s movement was north-northwestward at a speed of 15 kph (8 kt/9 mph).

Latest Advisories in Effect

An Emergency Typhoon Warning is in effect for:

  • Southern Kyushu
  • Satsuma Region
  • Osumi Region
  • Tanegashima
  • and Yakushima Region.

A Typhoon Warning is in effect for:

  • Southern Kyushu
  • Miyazaki Southern Plains
  • and the Amami Region.

A Gale Advisory is in effect for:

  • Okinawa Islands
  • Okinawa Main Islands
  • Daito Jima Region
  • Kume Jima Region
  • Rest of the Kyushu Islands including Amami
  • Entire Shikoku Island
  • Kansai Region (Honshu Island)
  • and the Chugoku Region (Honshu Island).

Advisories in Fukuoka and Kumamoto Prefectures are expected to be upgraded to an Emergency  Typhoon Warning on Sunday. Kochi Region in Shikoku and the rest of Kyushu Islands except western Oita are expected to be under a Typhoon Warning on Sunday.

For more details in your local area, please refer to your Prefecture Disaster Office or go to JMA website here.

What to Expect?

Waves generated by Nanmadol crashing into the Miyazaki coast.

Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rain are expected to be brought by the Violent Typhoon, as the JMA classifies it. Winds as strong as 195 kph (105 kt / 125 mph) are expected for Southern Kyushu and Amami Islands. Miyazaki Prefecture in western Kyushu is expected to experience winds up to 150 kph (80 kt / 90 mph.) Typhoon conditions are expected in eastern Honshu, and gale-force winds in Chugoku Region in Honshu and the entire Shikoku Island.

Rainfall totals on Sunday in southern Kyushu could reach up to 500 millimeters (20 inches.) In northern Kyushu, totals could still reach 300 millimeters (12 inches) and Shikoku Island up to 150 millimeters (6 inches). This amount of rain could cause widespread flooding, especially to the plains of southern Kyushu. Rivers overflowing are expected as the storm passes.

On Sunday evening, Nanmadol which is still a typhoon will pivot towards the northeast and move towards Honshu, still bringing winds up to 55 kph (30 kts / 35 mph) and rainfall totals up to 100 millimeters (4 inches) enough to inundate some areas in the region.

Heed all orders from your local authorities and get regular updates from the JMA. You can also watch Force Thirteen Automated Streaming Service here:

 

The post Super Typhoon Nanmadol to Affect Majority of Japan appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
https://www.force-13.com/super-typhoon-nanmadol-to-affect-majority-of-japan/feed 0
Typhoon Hinnamnor to Hit Korean Peninsula Tuesday https://www.force-13.com/typhoon-hinnamnor-to-hit-korean-peninsula-tuesday https://www.force-13.com/typhoon-hinnamnor-to-hit-korean-peninsula-tuesday#respond Mon, 05 Sep 2022 15:35:50 +0000 https://www.force-13.com/?p=10958 Typhoon Hinnamnor is inching closer to the Korean Peninsula as it continues to move towards...

The post Typhoon Hinnamnor to Hit Korean Peninsula Tuesday appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
High waves roll towards the coast of Jeju Island

Typhoon Hinnamnor is inching closer to the Korean Peninsula as it continues to move towards the north-northeast. Authorities across the peninsula are alerting the citizens on the likely damage to be brought by the typhoon winds and rain. Typhoon Hinnamnor is expected to be one of the strongest typhoons to hit the peninsula and cause significant damages, especially to the southeastern provinces of South Korea and the Islands of Jeju and Dokdo; and the northern Kyushu Island of Japan.

Current Information:

On its 21:00 KST advisory, the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) located the storm at 32.4°N 126.6°E or about 95 kilometers (58 miles) south of the city of Seogwipo in Jeju Island. It has 10-minute sustained winds of 170 kph (105 mph), with minimum central pressure of 940 millibars, and is moving towards north-northeast at a speed of 30 kph (18 mph). Meanwhile, on the midnight advisory of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimates the storm to have 1-minute sustained winds of 185 kph (115 mph) and minimum central pressure of 943 millibars.

Current Warnings:

Typhoon Warning
South Korea
Central and Southern North Chungcheong
Southeastern South Chungcheong
Daejeon
Central and Southern North Gyeongsang
South Gyeongsang
Daegu
Busan
Ulsan
North Jeolla
South Jeolla
Gwangju
Japan
Northern Kyushu
Satsuma and Osumi Regions of Southern Kyushu

Typhoon Advisory
South Korea
Southern Gyeonggi
Southern Gangwon
Rest of North Chungcheong
Rest of South Chungcheong
Rest of North Gyeongsang
Sejong
Japan
Southern Kyushu
Amami Islands
Chugoku Region
Shikoku Region
Kansai Region

For more information, go to the Korean Meteorological Agency using the hyperlink.

Fishing boats brought to the Pohang Port ahead of Typhoon Hinnamnor

Risk Related to the Storm
It is forecast to directly hit the city of Busan and the nearby areas, millions of people are likely to be affected. The KMA warns the people of strong winds brought by the typhoon that could damage infrastructures, uproot trees, and damage electric and phone lines. Heavy rains as high as 600 millimeters could bring heavy flooding, and alongside the storm surge caused by the storm’s large wind field, coastal areas are likely to receive significant damages.

If affected by Typhoon Hinnamnor, follow information from your local authorities and get updates from the KMA and Force Thirteen.

The post Typhoon Hinnamnor to Hit Korean Peninsula Tuesday appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
https://www.force-13.com/typhoon-hinnamnor-to-hit-korean-peninsula-tuesday/feed 0
Super Typhoon Hinnamnor Weakens, Lashes Daitojima Islands https://www.force-13.com/super-typhoon-hinnamnor-weakens-lashes-daitojima-islands https://www.force-13.com/super-typhoon-hinnamnor-weakens-lashes-daitojima-islands#respond Wed, 31 Aug 2022 15:44:56 +0000 https://www.force-13.com/?p=10851 Super Typhoon Hinnamnor lashed out on another small island group of Japan, today in Daitojima...

The post Super Typhoon Hinnamnor Weakens, Lashes Daitojima Islands appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
Super Typhoon Hinnamnor lashed out on another small island group of Japan, today in Daitojima Islands. Record observations were measured in the small islands inside the storm’s eyewall. Kitadaito Airport recorded pressure of 963.8 millibars. The airport also tallied 10-minute sustained winds of 135 kph with gusts reaching up to 174 kph.

 

 Local authorities and residents are preparing for the upcoming storm. The Governor of the Okinawa Prefecture told citizens to evacuate and avoid unnecessary travel. JMA warns the storm could topple houses as it passes the islands in the coming days.

Image
Okinawa supermarkets with empty shelves as residents prepares for Hinnamnor

Current Information:

The 22:00 JST update of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) estimates the storm to be 24.7°N 127.7°E or about 168 kilometers (104 miles) south of Naha City, Okinawa Main Island. The storm packs 10-minute winds of 185 kph (100 kt / 115 mph) with gusts reaching up to 260 kph (140 kt / 160 mph.) Minimum central pressure is at 935 millibars and the storm is moving west-southwest at a speed of 20 kph.

For more detailed information, see our latest forecast video.

 

Current Warnings:

Storm Warning

  • Okinawa Main Island
  • Kume Jima
  • Daito Jima Region
  • Miyako Jima Region
  • Ishigaki Jima Region

High Wave Warning

  • Okinawa Main Island
  • Kume Jima

 

JMA notes high probability of Miyako Jima and Ishigaki Jima Regions to be under High Wave Warning.

 

High Wave Advisory

  • Okinawa Prefecture 
    • Daito Jima Region
    • Yonaguni Jima Region
  • Plain Area of Miyazaki Prefecture 
  • Kagoshima Prefecture
    • Osumi Region
    • Tanegashima Yakushima Region
    •  Amami Region

Storm Surge Advisory

  • Okinawa Main Island

 

Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) also notes the possibility of hoisting warning signals in the Extreme Northern Luzon due to proximity to the storm.

The latest warning information can be found on the JMA site and PAGASA site respectively.

Storm Hazards

Strong winds and waves are the main concern raised by the JMA to the residents of the Ryukyu Islands. Winds of 95 kph (60 mph) with higher gusts are forecast on Thursday; waves as high as 8 meters (26 feet) are also expected in the Okinawa Main Island. Rain of 50 to 100 millimeters are forecast in the southern Ryukyus.

The post Super Typhoon Hinnamnor Weakens, Lashes Daitojima Islands appeared first on Force Thirteen.

]]>
https://www.force-13.com/super-typhoon-hinnamnor-weakens-lashes-daitojima-islands/feed 0