Current information

As of the 11:35am AST (3:35 pm UTC) update, Hurricane Beryl is located at 10.8 degrees north, 54.9 degrees west, or about 350 miles to the east-southeast of Barbados. Current reconnaissance data support winds of 130 mph (195 km/h) and a central pressure of 962 millibars, and is moving west at 21 mph (18 knots). Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

In the latest 8am EDT outlook, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Invest 94L, located over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche. According to the NHC, environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday morning. It has a 50% chance of forming in the next 7 days, with a reconnaissance aircraft enroute to investigate the system as of this writing.

Next to Beryl is Invest 96L, which remains at a 70% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days, as it is likely to form in the middle of next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph through the Atlantic.

Current warnings

A Hurricane Warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected, is in effect for:

• Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada, and Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, is in effect for:

• Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Dominica and Trinidad

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be issued later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Current forecast

Beryl has continued its rapid intensification as reconnaissance data have showed over the last few hours. Given the continued conducive environmental conditions and compact inner core, it will likely strengthen some more through tonight. Beryl is expected to be a very dangerous category 4 hurricane when it moves through Windward Islands. The models show a gradual increase in shear when the system moves across the Caribbean Sea and that should cause Beryl’s intensity to go down and then gradually weaken. However, Beryl is expected to remain a significant hurricane through the next 5 days.

In the track side, it has continued to move swiftly westwards under a strong subtropical ridge to its north, but it has been moving south of the models’ forecasts over the past day or two. A continued quick west to west-northwest motion is forecast during the next several days as the ridge remains the primary steering feature. This should take the core of Beryl near Grenada by Monday morning into night and then across much the Caribbean Sea during the following few days.

Current hazards

• Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early Monday morning. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.
  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting late tonight.
• A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
• Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas.
  Showers and thunderstorms well north of the track may produce 1 to 4 inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday.
  Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible.
• Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Preparations should be rushed to completion as Beryl continues its trek towards the Windward Islands. The island of St. Lucia has issued a shutdown order starting from 8pm AST (12am UTC). Evacuate if directed by officials, and stay tuned to your local meteorological office for updates, and to us as the hurricane season progresses. You can always check our 24/7 automated stream which you can watch here:

The post Atlantic tropics: Beryl a major hurricane, two possible cyclones likely to form appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current information

As of the 11pm AST (3am UTC) advisory, Hurricane Beryl is located at 10.4 degrees north, 51.2 degrees west, or about 595 miles to the east-southeast of Barbados. It currently has winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) and a central pressure of 986 millibars, and is moving west at 20 mph (17 knots).

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

Current warnings

A Hurricane Warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected, is in effect for:

• Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, and Grenada.

A Tropical Storm Warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, is in effect for:

• Martinique and Tobago.

A Tropical Storm Watch, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours, is in effect for:

• Dominica.

Current forecast

Beryl is expected to maintain is current westward track with its speed over the next couple of days. This would take the system to the Windward Islands by Monday morning, and is forecast to pass at the middle of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada into Monday night, before continuing towards the Carribbean.

A subtle weakness in this ridging in the 24-48 hour period should help the hurricane gain a bit of latitude before the mid-level ridge builds back in over the southeastern U.S. by the middle of next week, likely resulting in a turn back more westward by Thursday.

In the intensity side, Beryl has all it needs to continue its rapid intensification, with the light to moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the system subsiding, while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and well-organized inner core likely means the storm should take full advantage of these conditions, with the SHIPS rapid intensification index showing a 62% chance of increasing its current winds by 25 knots in 24 hours. The current NHC forecast has a major hurricane of 125 mph (110 knots) as it passes through the Windward Islands.

Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, there could be a marked increase in westerly vertical wind shear as a strong easterly low-level jet will keep Beryl moving quickly westward against lighter upper-level upper-level easterlies partially eroded by a deep-layer trough off the Eastern Seaboard. Some weakening is forecast after 48 hours as Beryl moves further into the Caribbean.

Current hazards

• Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning Sunday night. Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands.
  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting Sunday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting Sunday night.
• A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
• Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas.
  Showers and thunderstorms well north of the track may produce 1 to 4 inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday.
  Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible.
• Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Residents within the warning area should start preparations as the system continues its track, and monitor products issued by their national meteorological services. Stay tuned to us as this system progresses. We currently have a 24/7 automated stream live, and you can watch here:

The post Hurricane warnings in effect as Hurricane Beryl nears the Windward Islands appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current information

As of the 8am AST (12pm UTC) update, Tropical Storm Beryl is located at 9.8 degrees north, 46.8 degrees west, or about 890 miles to the east of Barbados. It currently has winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) and a central pressure of 999 millibars, and is moving west at 21 mph (18 knots).

As for the two possible cyclones, the NHC is monitoring Invest 94L, which is currently over the Yucatan Peninsula. According to the latest 8pm EDT outlook, it is forecast to form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or tomorrow, before it moves inland Mexico next week. It currently has a 40% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days.

Meanwhile, another area of low pressure to the east of Beryl is also being monitored by the NHC. It currently has a 60% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 7 days, and is looking to form in the middle of next week as it moves at a general speed of 15 to 20 mph across the Atlantic.

Current warnings

Currently, a Hurricane Watch has been issued by the Barbados national meteorological service as Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane once it reaches the island. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl, and additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later this morning.

Current forecast

Beryl is forecast to continue intensifying as it moves along the Atlantic’s abnormally favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, with warm sea surface temperatures throughout its whole forecast track. The models are consistent with Beryl tracking west to west-northwest towards the Windward Islands, and it could track towards Jamaica at the end of the 5-day period.

In the intensity side of things, Beryl has a chance of rapidly intensifying, with the SHIPS index showing a 44% chance of increasing its current intensity by 65 knots in 72 hours. The current NHC forecast has Beryl intensifying into a hurricane by tomorrow early morning AST, and having a peak intensity of 110 mph by Monday as it moves near Barbados. It has been pointed out that their forecast could be conservative, as several of the intensity guidance models forecast Beryl to become a major hurricane.

Forecasted impacts

• Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible on Sunday.
• A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
• Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.
• Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Stay tuned to your local meteorological office and to us as the Atlantic season progresses. You can check our live automated stream at:

The post Hurricane watch issued as Tropical Storm Beryl intensifies in the Atlantic; two more cyclones possible appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current information

As of 16:00 RET (12:00 UTC), Belal is located near 16.8 degrees south, 54.0 degrees east, or approximately 475 km (295 mi) to the north-northwest of Réunion, and 520 km (323 mi) to the north-northwest of Mauritius. It is currently moving southwest at 24 km/h (15 mph).

Belal is rapidly intensifying according to the the Météo-France La Réunion (MFR), as it rapidly developed a central dense overcast with cold cloud tops, along with strong lightning activity being reported. The MFR has estimated Belal to have 10-minute sustained winds of 100 km/h (65 mph),  with gusts up to 150 km/h (90 mph), and a central pressure of 986 hectopascals. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has Belal with 1-minute sustained winds of 100 km/h, a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Current warnings

As of this writing, a yellow cyclone pre-alert is currently in effect for Réunion, and a class I cyclone warning for Mauritius.

Current forecast

Under an environment of 30-31°C sea surface temperatures, little to no shear and excellent upper-level divergence, Belal is forecast to continue rapidly intensifying in the next 36 hours to attain a peak intensity of 200 km/h (125 mph) by Monday morning, an intense tropical cyclone, according to the MFR. The JTWC’s forecasted peak intensity is slightly low from the MFR forecast, with 195 km/h (120 mph), a category 3-equivalent tropical cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson scale. As it reaches that peak intensity, it is expected to turn to the southeast as the westerlies over Madagscar weaken the deep-layered subtropical ridge to the east of the system. Both the MFR and JTWC agree on a Réunion landfall by Monday night, although the former has noted the uncertainty that the cyclone may pass within 100–150 km of the island.

Afterwards, the system is forecast by the JTWC to continue on a southeast direction as the subtropical ridge reorients to the northeast of the system; however, there is potential for Belal to slow down as the subtropical ridge builds back, creating a competing steering environment between a ridge to the west, and leads to some uncertainty in the coming week.

Current hazards

In Réunion, the MFR has alerted that gale-force winds will start to be felt from Sunday evening, and hurricane-force winds by Monday. Heavy rainfall is also expected in the next 24 hours, with 200–400mm (8–16 in) over the lower areas of the island and 1,000–1,500mm (39–59 in) over higher grounds from Sunday evening until Monday when Belal is expected to make landfall.

In Mauritius & Rodrigues, the following information is from our partners at MeteoHub – Mauritius:

• Today, 13/01: External cloud bands associated with the system will cross the island during the day and tonight. Rainy periods are expected. There will be gusts of 60-70 mph below the rain.
• Sunday 14/01: The weather will remains cloudy with rainy periods. Showers will be moderate to strong at times with thunderstorms and gusts of 80 to 90 km/h per moment.
• In Rodrigues, clouds associated with the system will cause showers, with thunderstorms and gusts of 50-70 km/h, interrupted by temporary calming. Showers will be moderate to strong at times with thunderstorms. Some water accumulation is possible.

The post Cyclone Belal a threat to Réunion, Mauritius appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current information

As of 22:00 AEST (12:00 UTC), Cyclone Jasper is located near 15.7 degrees south, and 147.4 degrees east, or about 220 kilometres (137 mi) to the northeast of Cairns in Queensland, Australia. It is currently moving northwest at 7 km/h (5 mph).

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has estimated Jasper to have 10-minute sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph), thus a Category 1 on the Australian scale, with gusts up to 120 km/h (75 mph), and a central pressure of 990 millibars. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has Jasper with 1-minute sustained winds of 90 km/h (60 mph), and a central pressure of 988 millibars. Both estimates are backed up by Dvorak and surface observations, although its deep convection is decreasing.

Jasper is currently in an environment of very low wind shear, and remains in warm sea surface temperatures. Although its convection is decreasing due to the continued effects of a dry air intrusion, it is expected to come back tomorrow with the peak diurnal period.

Current warnings

A Cyclone Warning is currently in effect for Cape Melville to Lucinda, including Cairns and Innisfail and extending inland to include Chillagoe and Palmerville. Additionally, a Flood Watch is also in effect for the North Tropical Coast, parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf Country.

Current forecast

Within a favorable environment, Jasper is forecast to reintensify once again to a Category 2 system, as it takes a more westerly track due to the influence of a ridge to its south, before it makes landfall between Cooktown and Port Douglas by tomorrow afternoon. After landfall, land interaction and dry air will rapidly weaken Jasper and likely dissipate by Thursday. Its remnants is forecast to emerge to the Gulf of Carpentaria by Saturday, where the BoM expects regeneration by next week.

Current hazards

• Locally intense rainfall which may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding is forecast to develop from Wednesday afternoon along the coast and adjacent ranges between Cape Flattery and Port Douglas as well as areas near the centre of Jasper. Isolated six-hourly rainfall totals between 250–300mm are likely with 24-hourly totals between 400–500mm possible.

  Heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding is also forecast to develop between Cape Flattery and Ingham. Six-hourly rainfall totals between 100–150mm are likely, with isolated falls up to 250mm along the coast and adjacent ranges. 24-hourly rainfall totals between 150–250 mm are likely, with isolated falls up to 350mm possible.

• Destructive wind gusts of up to 140 km/h may develop between Wujal Wujal and Innisfail, including Cairns from early Wednesday morning.

  Gales with damaging wind gusts of up to 120 km/h are expected to develop along the Queensland coast and adjacent ranges between Cape Flattery and Lucinda, including Cairns late Tuesday or early Wednesday. These damaging winds are likely to extend inland as far as Palmerville and Chillagoe after the cyclone has crossed the coast on Wednesday. Gales with damaging winds may extend as far north as Cape Melville on Wednesday, depending on the movement of Jasper.

• As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Cooktown and Lucinda on the high tides on Wednesday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore.

According to 9News, locals well-accustomed to cyclones have been preparing for days, clearing debris and loose items, filling sandbags and yesterday stripping supermarket shelves in Cairns. About 25,000 people in the red and orange flood zones were told to prepare to leave and plan to stay with friends or family on higher ground. Evacuation centres were also set up at the Edmonton Storm Tide Cyclone Shelter and Redlynch State College. Emergency alerts were issued yesterday for Douglas Shire, where residents were urged to take shelter in the strongest part of the building they were in, and Wujal Wujal.

A pre-emptive disaster declaration was made yesterday for the area between Cape Melville and Townsville, as emergency response teams flew in from Brisbane.

As the system closes in to the state of Queensland, it is important to stay updated with your local officials to know what you will do once the cyclone hits. Preparations should be nearing completion. Evacuate if ordered to, and have plenty of non-perishable food stocked up. Stay tuned to your local weather office, and to our Australian regional channel and 24/7 automated stream as the system progresses.

The post Cyclone Jasper to strike Queensland tomorrow appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current information

As of 22:00 AEST (12:00 UTC), Cyclone Jasper is located near 17.0 degrees south, and 148.9 degrees east, or about 335 kilometres to the east of Cairns and northeast of Townsville, in Queensland. It is currently moving west-southwest at 17 kph (10 mph).

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) have estimated Jasper to have 10-minute sustained winds of 85 kph (50 mph), thus a Category 1 on the Australian scale, with gusts up to 120 kph (65 mph), and a central pressure of 992 millibars. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has Jasper with 1-minute sustained winds of 85 kph (50 mph), with a central pressure of 994 millibars. Both estimates are based on surface observations, since Dvorak estimates have been low due to the system lacking deep convection.

Jasper continues to be entrained by dry air, hence the lack of convection to most of its structure. However, it is moving to an area of lower wind shear, and remains over warm sea surface temperatures.

Current warnings

According to the BoM’s Tropical Cyclone Advice, a Cyclone Warning is in effect for Cooktown to Townsville (but not including Townsville), including Cairns, Innisfail, and Palm Island. A Cyclone Watch is also in effect for Cape Melville to Cooktown, extending inland to include Palmerville and Chillagoe.

A Flood Watch is also in effect for the North Tropical Coast, parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf Country, along with a Severe Weather Warning for damaging gusts associated to the cyclone to parts of Herbert and Lower Burdekin and Central Coast and Whitsundays Forecast Districts.

Current forecast

With Jasper moving over more favorable conditions, both the BoM and JTWC forecast some reintensification, as it continues west-northwest under the influence of a ridge to its south, before it crosses the Cape York Peninsula by Wednesday, between Cooktown and Innisfail. The BoM is expecting a Category 2 system at landfall, but pointed out that if it moves slower than forecast, there is a slim chance of a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone striking land. After that, the JTWC forecasts the system to dissipate inland by Thursday, although model guidance has the system emerging from land and into the Gulf of Carpentaria, where the BoM has said it is likely that the system will regenerate there.

Current hazards

• Damaging wind gusts of over 90 km/h are expected to develop along the Queensland coast and adjacent ranges between Cooktown and Townsville, including Cairns, from Tuesday. These damaging wind gusts are expected to extend inland to Palmerville and Chillagoe after the cyclone has crossed the coast on Wednesday. Damaging wind gusts may extend as far north as Cape Melville on Wednesday, depending on the movement of Jasper.

• Heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding is forecast to develop from early Wednesday morning between Cape Flattery and Ingham. Six-hourly totals between 100–150mm are likely, with isolated falls of 250mm possible along the coast and adjacent ranges. 24-hourly rainfall totals between 150–250mm are likely, with isolated falls up to 350mm possible.
• As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Cooktown and Townsville on Tuesday and by Wednesday high tides. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore.

As the system continues towards Queensland, preparations should be completed as soon as possible. Listen to your local officials for the latest updates, and evacuate if necessary. Stay tuned to your local weather office and to us as the system progresses. Our Australian regional branch continues to make updates for this system, along with our main 24/7 automated stream which you can tune in here.

The post Warnings issued as Cyclone Jasper nears Queensland appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current information

As of 10:00 AEST (00:00 UTC), Cyclone Jasper is located near 15.4 degrees south, 156.0 degrees east, or about 1,110 kilometres (690 mi) to the east of Cairns in Queensland, Australia. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) estimated the system to have 10-minute sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph), thus a category 4 severe tropical cyclone, with gusts up to 250 km/h (155 mph), and a central pressure of 950 millibars. Meanwhile, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has Jasper with 1-minute sustained winds of 165 km/h (105 mph), being a Category 2-equivalent cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with a central pressure of 964 millibars. Both wind estimates are supported by current Dvorak estimates. Jasper is currently moving fairly slow to the southwest at 6 km/h (4 mph).

Current warnings

There are no current warnings for the system. However, this may change as Jasper continues to move towards Queensland.

Current forecast

With Jasper having dry air mixed within itself, causing its eye that was present yesterday to collapse, in combination with increasing wind shear, the system is forecast by both the BoM and JTWC to continue weaken as it continues south under the influence of a weak mid-level ridge to the east and southeast. By late Saturday leading to Sunday, a stronger ridge is expected to take command of Jasper’s movement and go west towards Queensland. On Tuesday, the wind shear is forecast to ease, leading to a potential reintensification to a strong tropical cyclone, before making landfall between Cape Melville and Townsville on Wednesday or Thursday. In the much longer term, some model guidance has Jasper surviving the landfall and redeveloping in the Gulf of Carpentaria, near the Northern Territory.

Jasper is the first tropical cyclone to reach Category 4+ severe tropical cyclone status in the month of December since Cyclone Laurence of 2009, which went on to affect western Australia. However, the extent of its future impacts remain uncertain, so be sure to check out your local meteorological office for the latest forecasts for the system. Also, tune in to our 24/7 automated stream and our regional channel in Australia for the latest updates as this storm progresses.

The post Cyclone Jasper a looming threat to northeast Australia appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current information

As of 8:00 pm China time (12:00 UTC), Tropical Storm Doksuri is located at 26.9 north, 117.9 degrees east, or in the vicinity of Sanming, Fujian. The Japan Meteorological Agency has the storm with 10-minute sustained winds of 75 km/h (45 mph), with gusts of 110 km/h (60 mph), and a central pressure of 994 millibars. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, although it issued its final warning on the system, is continuing to track it as a tropical storm, currently with 1-minute sustained winds of 100 km/h (65 mph).

Tropical Storm Khanun is located at 14.2 degrees north, 135.5 degrees east, or about 340 miles north-northwest of Yap. The JMA has the storm with 10-minute sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph), with gusts of 90 km/h (55 mph), and a central pressure of 998 millibars. The JTWC also has Khanun with 1-minute sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph).

Force Thirteen currently has Doksuri with 1-minute sustained winds of 90 km/h (55 mph), which is slightly lower than the JTWC estimate, and a central pressure of 982 millibars, while Khanun has winds of 75 km/h (45 mph), which is slightly higher than the JTWC estimate, and a central pressure of 998 millibars.

Current warnings

The China Meteorological Administration has issued the following warnings for Doksuri:

• Yellow Typhoon Warning for Fuzhou, Ningde & Wenzhou, Fujian, and the entire province of Anhui; and
• Blue Typhoon Warning for Zhangzhou, Quanzhou & Sanming, Fujian, Quzhou, Hangzhou, Huzhou & Jiaxing, Zhejiang, and the entire provinces of Jiangxi, Jiangsu, and Shanghai.

There are no warnings currently in effect for Khanun.

Current forecast

With Doksuri dying over China, Khanun looks to take over the stage in the Western Pacific. Although currently struggling to organize its broad circulation due to persistent northerly wind shear and mid to upper-level dry air coming down from the north and west, the storm is forecast to rapidly intensify on Sunday after dealing with its problems, with the current JTWC forecast calling for a major typhoon peak.

The system is then expected to turn west-northwest under the influence of a subtropical ridge lying in an east-west axis from Japan, to South Korea, and into northern China during this rapid intensification, and will likely come very near Okinawa by Monday next week, before slamming into Shanghai by Wednesday.

Khanun will likely step up its intensification soon, and as such, residents in Okinawa and eastern China need to monitor the system’s progression. Stay tuned to us as we continue to monitor both Doksuri and Khanun.

The post Doksuri weakens to a TS over China, TS Khanun another potential threat appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current information

As of 8:00 pm CST (12:00 UTC), Doksuri is located at 21.8 degrees north, 119.1 degrees east, or about 360 km southeast of Xiamen, Fujian. The Japan Meteorological Agency has Doksuri with 10-minute sustained winds of 150 km/h (90 mph), with gusts of 210 km/h (130 mph), and a central pressure of 955 millibars. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated Doksuri to have 1-minute sustained winds of 195 km/h (120 mph), which is equivalent to a Category 3 system on the SSHWS. The storm is moving north-northwest at 13 km/h (8 mph).

Force Thirteen currently has Doksuri with 1-minute sustained winds of 200 km/h (125 mph), which is slightly higher than the JTWC estimate, and a central pressure of 939 millibars. The wind estimate is supported by the range of satellite estimates and radar velocity (>60m/s at 3km) reported from Taiwan and Xiamen radars.

Current warnings

The China Meteorological Administration has issued the following warnings:

• Red Typhoon Warning for Zhangzhou & Xiamen, Fujian;
• Orange Typhoon Warning for Jieyang & Chaozhou, Guangdong, and Quanzhou, Fujian;
• Yellow Typhoon Warning for Wenzhou & Ningde, Fujian, and Fuzhou, Zhejiang; and
• Blue Typhoon Warning for Quzhou, Zhejiang, Sanming, Fujian, Pudong New District, Shanghai, and the entirety of Jiangxi.

The Hong Kong Observatory and the Macau Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau have hoisted their Standby Signal No. 1 for their respective regions, with higher signals unlikely to be raised.

The Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan has issued typhoon warnings in Nantou, Chiayi, Pingtung, Changhua, Penghu, Taitung, Hualien, Miaoli, Kinmen, & Yunli counties, and in Chiayi, Tainan and Kaoshiung City.

Current forecast

Although abysmal on radar imagery, with a 6 nautical mile pinhole eye embedded within a moat of clear air and a secondary eyewall, the system is under a favorable environment of 31 degrees Celsius sea surface temperatures, and even more warmer towards the coast of China due to coastal downwelling induced by the system, along with low wind shear, robust poleward and strong equatorward outflow. It will continue its reintensification before it strikes Xiamen in the next 12–18 hours, with the current JTWC forecast calling for a Category 4 system to hit the area, although a slightly stronger system cannot be ruled out if the eyewall replacement cycle currently ongoing on the system can fully complete. After it hits land, it is expected to weaken quickly, and dissipate by Saturday.

Current hazards

• Rain: Doksuri will continue to drop heavy rainfall across China, Taiwan and the Philippines, with 250–300mm of rainfall forecast to drop in southeastern portions of Fujian, Zhejiang, and Taiwan. In the Philippines, the southwest monsoon enhanced by Doksuri will continue to bring occasional to monsoonal rains over the western portion of Luzon in the next three days.
• Wind: In parts of southern Fujian and the coast, winds may reach hurricane-force as Doksuri approaches, with the rest of Fujian, Zhejiang and the eastern part of Guangdong experiencing storm-force winds.

Current situation in the Philippines

Doksuri, known in the Philippines as Egay, has continued to drop large amounts of rainfall in northern Luzon. The weather station in Baguio has recorded 265mm of rainfall over the past 24 hours, followed by Sinait, Ilocos Sur with 245mm, and Laoag, Ilocos Norte with 150mm. These amounts were likely exacerbated by the mountainous terrain in the area. 6 people were reported dead, 11 were injured, and more than 400,000 affected, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

Down south, the southwest monsoon enhanced by the storm has also dropped a significant amount of rain, with a weather station in Subic Bay recording 164mm of rainfall. The capital, Manila, has experienced 47mm of rainfall over the past 24 hours. The continuous rainfall led to the Marikina River hitting its second alarm of 16 meters, but has now decreased below alarm levels.

The system continues to be a threat to land, and so preparations in China must be nearing completion. Keep updated with your local officials and to us as the system progresses.

The post Typhoon Doksuri reintensifies as it barrels towards China appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current information

As of 11:00 pm PHT (15:00 UTC), Doksuri is located at 19.5 degrees north, 120.6 degrees east, or about 120 km west-northwest of Calayan, Cagayan. The Japan Meteorological Agency has estimated Doksuri to have 10-minute winds of 160 km/h (100 mph), with gusts of 220 km/h (140 mph), and a central pressure of 950 millibars. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has Doksuri with 1-minute sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph), making the storm a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It is currently moving northwestward at 9 km/h (6 mph).

Force Thirteen has estimated the storm to have winds of 160 km/h (100 mph), which is lower than the current JTWC estimate, and a central pressure of 954 millibars.

Current warnings

The PAGASA has currently hoisted the following Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS):

• TCWS #3 for the northwestern portion of Ilocos Norte (Bangui, Pagudpud, Burgos, Pasuquin);
• TCWS #2 for Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Kalinga, Abra, the rest of Ilocos Norte, Apayao, the northern and central portion of Ilocos Sur (Gregorio del Pilar, Magsingal, San Esteban, Banayoyo, Burgos, City of Candon, Santa Lucia, Santiago, San Vicente, Santa Catalina, Lidlidda, Nagbukel, Sinait, Suyo, Sigay, San Ildefonso, Galimuyod, Quirino, City of Vigan, San Emilio, Cabugao, Caoayan, San Juan, Santa, Bantay, Santo Domingo, Santa Cruz, Santa Maria, Narvacan, Salcedo, Tagudin, Cervantes), the western portion of Mountain Province (Besao, Sagada, Bontoc, Sadanga, Tadian, Sabangan, Bauko), and Batanes; and
• TCWS #1 for Isabela, the rest of Mountain Province, Ifugao, Zambales, Pangasinan, Benguet, La Union, Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Ilocos Sur, Quirino, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, the northern portion of Bataan (Morong, Samal, Orani, Hermosa, Dinalupihan) and the northern portion of Bulacan (Hagonoy, Doña Remedios Trinidad, Paombong, City of Malolos, Plaridel, Guiguinto, Pandi, Bustos, Angat, Calumpit, Pulilan, Baliuag, San Rafael, San Ildefonso, San Miguel).

The Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan has issued typhoon warnings for Nantou, Chiayi, Pingtung, Changhua, Penghu, Taitung, Hualien and Yunlin counties, along with Chiayi, Tainan and Kaoshiung City.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued the following warnings:

• Orange Typhoon Warning for Shantou, Guangdong;
• Yellow Typhoon Warning for Zhangzhou, Xiamen, Quanzhou, Fuzhou and Ningde, Fujian, and Jieyang City, Guangdong; and
• Blue Typhoon Warning for Shanwei and Meizhou, Guangdong, and Wenzhou, Zheijang.

Current forecast

As a microwave pass showed, Doksuri’s eye is now weak and eroding, but as it moves away from Luzon, there is a small window of reintensification with an overall favorable environment, along with high oceanic heat content. The current JTWC forecast has the storm reintensifying into major typhoon status, before it interacts with the geography of Taiwan. As it moves north-northwestward, the storm will likely hit southern China as a weak typhoon by Friday, before dissipating shortly after.

Current hazards

• Rain: Doksuri is forecast to continue dropping 100-200mm of rainfall on Ilocos Norte, the northern portions of Ilocos Sur and Abra. Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days. The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by the storm will continue to bring occasional to monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon in the next three days. Numerous rainfall warnings are also currently in effect in Taiwan.
• Wind: Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds may be experienced within the areas under Wind Signal No. 3. Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect, and minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted. The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over Luzon and parts of Visayas over the next 3 days.
• Storm surge: There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge which may cause flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and extreme northern portion of Ilocos Sur. Maximum surge heights may reach 3.0 m in most of the warning areas.

Current situation

Doksuri has already dropped more than 200mm of rainfall on some areas in northern Luzon. An automated weather station (AWS) in Baguio has already recorded 485mm of rainfall over the past 24 hours, followed by Laoag, Ilocos Norte with 410mm, and Sinait, Ilocos Sur with 397mm. These amounts were likely exacerbated by the mountainous terrains around the area. The AWS in Itbayat, Batanes has seen lesser rainfall, with 115mm recorded, along with Tuguegarao with 101mm.

According local media, 6 deaths have been reported in parts of Benguet, Mountain Province and Baguio. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) are still verifying the information, and also reported 2 were injured, with more than 180,000 people affected by the storm.

The storm continues to drop heavy rainfall, and we hope you are safe from this storm. Stay tuned to us and your local officials as the storm progresses.

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