affects from the typhoon are already being felt as heavy rain and surf are starting to move ashore. It is likely that gale force sustained winds have already begun to reach the archipelago nation, and conditions will only continue to deteriorate throughout the night and early morning in the northern part of the nation. It is possible that gale force winds reach as far south as the Manila metro are as the storm passes over the country,

PAGASA, the Philippine weather agency has put most of Luzon under signal one warnings, and some areas have warnings as high as signal three. Signal three warnings indicate the potential for winds above 121kph within the next eighteen hours. The warning also includes the possibility of wave heights above fourteen meters and storm surge.

Over the past day evacuation orders were issued across the northern part of Luzon in low lying coastal areas and areas inland that may be prone to flash flooding or landslides. In most of the region, classes are cancelled for all school levels along with most stores. In Cagayan, the governor held a pre-disaster risk assessment meeting where he gave evacuation orders.

PAGASA was not available for immediate comment on what they have been doing to help the nation prepare for the storm, but it is clear that they are doing their job in issuing warnings and advisories on Yutu.

After crossing over the Philippines Yutu will move into the South China Sea, where a period of intensification is possible before the storm encounters more hostile conditions in a few days. However, interests in Hong Kong, Southern China and Taiwan should be monitoring the storm closely as it may impact any of these areas with rough surf, rain or wind. For the time being, Yutu is an extremely dangerous and powerful storm that is already impacting the Northern Philippines. It is a life threatening situation that should be taken seriously, and we at Force Thirteen will continue to provide updates on the situation frequently.

Authors Note: Typhoon Yutu is an extremely dangerous storm that is capable of causing loss of life. Anyone reading this article that live in Luzon should know that the time for preparation is over and that if you have not evacuated despite being told to do so, it is now too dangerous to leave your location. Please remain safe and listen to any information or orders given by local officials for your safety.

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Yutu has moved south of what was forecast at the time of the publishing of my last article, and is almost certain to make a landfall on the Philippines rather than cross just north of the archipelago nation. The Filipino government has already issued signal one warnings for large portions of the northern region of Luzon, and heightened warnings are very likely to be issued in the coming day.

The typhoon is expected to cross over the largest Philippine island in less than one day, bringing life threatening rain, winds and storm surge. Unfortunately, the same region that is being impacted by Yutu in the coming day is the same area that was devastated last month by Super Typhoon Mangkhut, which made landfall in Luzon as a category 5 storm.

To protect its people from potential harm in another natural disaster, the Filipino government is already taking action. In Cagayan, governer Manuel Mamba led a pre-disaster risk assessment where he told officials to evacuate residents in prone locations by the end of Monday, October 29th. He also suspended classes of all levels for the whole province on Monday and order disaster response teams to prepare to respond to the storm. Preparations like the ones in Cagayan are being issued across all of the Northern Philippines as gale force winds and heavy rain are expected to spread several hundred kilometers away from the center of the storm.

Elsewhere, Southern China and Taiwan are closely monitoring the progress of Typhoon Yutu as it may impact either area after it passes through Central Luzon. The current forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and PAGASA both call for the storm to cross into the South China Sea, but where the system may track after reaching this area is uncertain. Some models take the storm as far west as Hainan Island while others take the storm just offshore of western Taiwan.

Regardless, Yutu remains an extreme threat for a region that already been impacted by Super Typhoon Mangkhut, and may not be fully recovered from its effects. The government is acting to protect its people, but the time for preparations is running out as the dangerous storm bears down on the island nation.

Authors Note: To anyone reading this article that lives in the Philippines, Southern China, or Taiwan, please listen to local officials for any information. This is a potentially deadly situation, and it is key that you follow orders given by officials for your safety.

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Luzon in particular is keeping a very close on eye on the storm because it may impact the northern part of the province where Super Typhoon Mangkhut roared ashore last month as a category five storm with winds of 175mph at the time of landfall as a stage 10 on the Cyclone Potential Damage Scale, the highest level on it.

Computer models and official weather agencies have continued to shift their forecast tracks for Yutu further south in recent days, and many take the storm directly over the province of Luzon now. Many GFS ensemble members and the ECMWF parent model take Yutu straight over the region. Meteorological agencies have also been changing their forecasts, with the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the Philippine Atmospheric and Astronomical Services Administration forecasting the powerful storm to move across the area.

Taiwan is not out of the range of threat either, as some computer models take the storm towards the island nation, and gale force winds may potential reach the nation as well. This is shown in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast, which has tropical storm force winds reaching significant portions of the island, as they predict tropical storm force winds to reach over 250 nautical miles from the center of the storm in five days.

It is important to keep in mind that these forecasts are not final and subject to change, and that some computer models also take the typhoon away from any landmass, but for the time being it seems like that scenario is becoming less and less likely. It is imperative that people in regions that may be impacted by Super Typhoon Yutu keep a close eye on the location and forecasts of the storm. For now, we can only watch and see what happens.

Authors Note: To anyone reading this article that lives in the Philippines or Taiwan, please listen to local officials for any information. This is a potentially deadly situation, and it is key that you follow orders given by officials for your safety.

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Although Yutu is still churning in the Philippine Sea as a powerful typhoon at the moment, its threat to these few islands have come to an end. While the true scope of the damage is not yet clear, we can only expect that there has been severe damage. The real question that has to be asked now is how will the nation that controls these islands, the United States, respond?

The delegate to congress from the Northern Mariana Islands has already said that the territory will need significant aid to recover from the storm, noting that there are injuries and people being treated at hospitals, but not being able to comment on the level of damage and potential casualties due to the lack of information at the time. The delegate, Gregorio Kilili Camacho Sablan said, “There’s a lot of damage and destruction. It’s like a small war just passed through.” A meteorologist from the National Weather Service echoed this statement saying that Tinian and Saipan will be unrecognizable compared to what they were like before the storm.

Fortunately we have heard that Congress has already reached back to the delegate from the islands offering help. But we can only wonder how much will actually be provided. As we have seen in recent years, there seems to be a massive gap to how the federal government responds to natural disasters; giving extensive aid to the mainland while almost ignoring territories in comparison. This was palpable in the case of Hurricane Maria, which devastated the American territory of Puerto Rico last year, but was given relatively little help by the federal government of America, which may have resulted in significantly rising the death toll in the territory of over three million people to almost three thousand deaths.

Right now one thing is clear. The Northern Mariana Islands have been impacted by a super typhoon of unprecedented intensity for the region. Although reports that give us knowledge of the true damage taken by the storm are slim, we know nothing good is going to come out from the area in terms of damage. But how will America react to giving aid to land that belongs to it, yet is less populated and is only a territory? Only time will tell.

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