At least 113 people have been killed due to the torrential rainfall caused by Seroja, with landslides, floods, and other disasters contributing to this. Many more are missing, and unfortunately, we expect that the death toll is higher than what has been recorded thus far. Indonesia and East Timor have been hardest hit by the storm. The storm continues to produce heavy rain for this region but is expected to move out of this region by this time tomorrow.

Seroja’s Future

Seroja is expected to strengthen over the next few days as it moves southwest. It will be moving into an extremely favorable environment to strengthen further, and confidence is high up to 2 days out that this storm will do so. After this period uncertainty grows substantially as a result of Tropical Storm 27S, another system to Seroja’s west, interacting with it. The interaction between these two tropical cyclones raises a lot of questions and has thrown weather models for a loop when it comes to the ultimate outcome of this. Here is what we do know, Seroja is favored to be the dominant system in this interaction and will continue to strengthen, with Force Thirteen forecasting this storm to become an extremely powerful Category 4(SSHWS & AU). What we don’t know is how the track of this storm will be influenced by this interaction, with solutions pointing to anything from Seroja impacting south-western Australia as an extratropical cyclone, to it making a Category 3+ landfall in northwestern Australia. This uncertainty makes it very difficult to pinpoint where or how severe impacts will be for the regions that are expected to be affected by Seroja. We will have much more information on the specifics of impacts and timing as we grow closer to landfall, but this far out with a complicated interaction between two storms, uncertainty is just too high to get into specifics.

For Australia

If you are within the path of this system, from the JTWC, BOM, or F13, it is best to prepare for the worst. There is a possibility that this storm arrives as a Category 3+ cyclone on the doorstep of Western Australia. We will have more information with time on what areas specifically could be impacted by this storm, but for now, if you are anywhere along the west coast of Australia, south of Exmouth, we recommend that you begin preparations now such as stocking up on food, water, and supplies to sustain you through a tropical cyclone.

We will continue to post updates on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and this website as this situation progresses

The post Tropical Storm Seroja has Killed over 100 in Indonesia, Could Impact Australia Later this Week appeared first on Force Thirteen.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC), Vayu will make it’s closest approach to India within the next 36 hours as a Category 2 on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  The storm is expected to have winds of 105mph or 90 knots at the time of landfall if it makes landfall. Whether the storm does make landfall or not, it does not change the fact that dry air will be creeping its way into the storm’s inflow, which will cause rapid weakening, and likely dissipation by the end of the 5 day forecast period.

Although the JTWC has made its forecast based on the factors described above, uncertainty still remains on the track and intensity of this system. The GEFS Ensembles below should give a good idea of just how much uncertainty there is

With that being said, due to the uncertainty associated with the track and intensity of this storm, anyone that could be within the track of this system in India, Pakistan, or Oman needs to be watching this closely, as Vayu still packs a punch.

The post Cyclone Vayu Continues its March North appeared first on Force Thirteen.

91L currently is located at 19.6*N 94.5*W, with maximum winds of 25mph, and a pressure of 1007mb.

Invest 91L has formed in the north Atlantic ocean and has shown positive signs for development over the past couple of days. The system has slowly become more and more organized throughout this time period. 91L is expected to make landfall in Mexico within the next 48-60 hours. This is the time it has remaining to develop. This storm has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression or stronger according to the National Hurricane Center in their two and 5-day outlooks.

Official NHC outlook as of 8:00 AM EDT

My forecast:
As 91L moves towards Mexico over the next 48-60 hours, I give the system a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression as well. Given favorable sea surface temperatures as well as the moist air that the storm is surrounded by, it’s environment supports further organization of the invest. The largest inhibiting factor for the storm though is wind shear which is growing less and less favorable for the storm with time. There is currently a northern bias of convection which is where the wind shear is, meaning that unless with the heating of the atmosphere today the southern side of the storm has convection, the invest will not develop. Given the latest observations from satellite imagery the southern side does look to have some convection, the question is if that will last. The ECMWF and HWRF support a strong tropical low/tropical depression forming as the storm moves into Mexico with the HWRF showing the possibility of a tropical storm as the system moves off the coast of Mexico in 84-96 hours, although the GFS shows the low dying away and the storm not developing. As the situation progresses with 91L, Force Thirteen will produce updates on it’s YouTube channel if necessary, and the National Hurricane Center(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5) will issue tropical weather outlooks every 6 hours regarding this invest.

The post Invest 91L has formed: Will it develop? appeared first on Force Thirteen.

More Detailed Look on Wednesday(Valid 06z Wednesday-06z Thursday):
There is a good agreement from all models(NAM, GFS, GFS-FV3, GDPS, ECMWF) that a long line of thunderstorms extending from the south-central border of Texas to central Oklahoma will be present at 06z Wednesday, while there will be no substantial threat of severe weather at this time a couple of isolated severe thunderstorms in central and southern Texas cannot be ruled out given CAPE values at the time of up to 1,000 J/kg are possible. While there is significant disagreement uppon models at this point it is clear that favorability for severe thunderstorms will increase significantly in southern Texas as the line of thunderstorms grows more concentrated on south-central Texas around 12z, with favorable CAPE, and wind shear for isolated severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. There is a relatively good agreement that this line will advance to from south-eastern to south-central Texas by 18z, with severe potential being high on the southern part of the line, with CAPE around 2,000 J/kg possible and wind shear supportive of supercell development. Uncertainty goes up greatly after this point as the GFS-FV3 shows signs of a bow echo forming, the GDPS shows a disorganized blob of storms, the GFS does as well. What can be concluded is that by the end of the forecast period a substantiated low-pressure system will be established with the line of strong storms on the Texas-Louisiana border.

Conclusion:
While there is a fair amount of uncertainty on Wednesday, there is evidence to support a severe weather event occurring in southern Texas, all modes of severe weather look to be possible, though the exact threat area and the level of these threats remain uncertain.

The post More Severe Thunderstorms for the US this week appeared first on Force Thirteen.

You can also check out the Force Thirteen US channel for video updates that will be coming in the near future.

The post Severe Weather to Strike the US Over the Weekend appeared first on Force Thirteen.