Tropical Storm Bill quickly formed from a non-tropical low-pressure system as it raced northeastward away from the Carolina coasts. It is now transitioning into an extratropical cyclone at this time and will likely complete this transition by the end of the day. Another tropical cyclone is likely to form. The disturbance-dubbed 92L-is located near the coast of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche.

Current Storm Information

As of 2pm AST (1800z), Force Thirteen analysis has Bill located at 40.5°N  61.1°W. It has maximum sustained winds of 60mph (50kts) and a pressure of 998mb. This makes Bill located about 520 miles (835 kilometers) away from Saint-Pierre.

Force Thirteen analysis gave 92L a 50% chance of development in the next 2 days, and an 80% chance of development in the next 5 days. The estimated center was 19.0°N  95.0°W with maximum sustained winds of 35mph (30kts), and a pressure of 1006mb. This makes the center of 92L located about 25 miles (40 kilometers) away from the coast of Mexico.

Impacts

Minimal impacts are expected for the coasts of the island. Environment Canada is forecasting gusty winds potentially reaching 70 kph (45mph) along the coast, along with periodic rain/drizzle. A tropical cyclone statement is in effect for these coastal areas, which states that significant impacts are not likely.

92L seems to be the bigger threat. It is a large system, with impacts expanding out over a large range. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue in Central America and Southern Mexico as the system stalls for another day or so. After it lifts northward, it will remain a broad system. Heavy rainfall again is the main threat along the Gulf Coast. 7 to 10 in (18 to 25 cm) of rain is forecasted along a wide swath including Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Slightly lower rainfall totals could penetrate as far inland as Central Alabama and far eastern Georgia.

There is currently no watches and warnings in effect as it is too early for them. At the very least, flash flood watches will likely be required for a large swath along the Gulf Coast. Tropical storm watches are also possible along portions of the Gulf Coast as the event draws closer.

Forecast

Bill is forecasted to continue moving to the northeast at a very fast speed. It will likely move very close to or over the coast of Newfoundland tonight or early tomorrow. Again, it is forecasted to become an extratropical cyclone by the end of the day today, meaning that the system is frontal and no longer warm-cored. Again, gusty winds may occur along the coastal areas. No flooding potential exists as the system will move very quickly and have relatively light rainfall. Storm surge is not a hazard with this system, but large waves are possible.

92L is forecasted to continue meandering near the coast of Mexico, potentially moving inland, over the next day or so. Afterwards, it is expected to loop northward and progress to the Gulf coast. It will likely develop into a tropical cyclone by Thursday when it is out of the Bay of Campeche. It will continue moving northward, and by Saturday will have made a landfall. It is a bit too early to pin down a specific landfall point; the general consensus is somewhere in Louisiana and potentially far eastern Texas.

Flooding will be the main concern. Again, with widespread totals of 7 to 10 in (18 to 25 cm) forecasted, flooding of rivers, streets, and potentially structures which are low-lying is possible. This rainfall is also on saturated grounds from significant rains over Louisiana that have occurred over the past several weeks. There is also some potential for gusty winds to tropical storm force over some coastal areas. It is too early to pinpoint the locations, timing, and intensity of the winds. Given the size of the storm, storm surge flooding is also possible, but it is still too early to determine the areas, timing, and magnitude.

Take the time now to review hurricane safety plans, especially since it is early in the season. Preparations, if needed, should begin soon as the storm will begin impacting on Friday. Stay tuned to the National Weather Service, Force Thirteen, and Local Officials for the latest information.

Sources:

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/

https://weather.gc.ca/

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The post Bill Undergoing Extratropical Transition; 92L a Threat to the Gulf Coast appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Current Information

Eta is currently located at about 26.2N, 83.7W, and is moving to the North-Northeast at about 10mph. It currently has maximum sustained winds of 75mph, with higher gusts. Eta currently has a pressure of 983mb, which is based off of aircraft reconnaissance observations. Eta is a somewhat large storm, with tropical storm force winds extending outward to 115 miles from the center. Hurricane force winds extend out to 60 miles from the northeast of the center.

Forecast

Eta will continue this North-Northeast movement for the next 24 hours until landfall in central Florida. Eta is currently forecasted to weaken back down to a strong tropical storm within the next 12 hours, and will continue weakening until it’s landfall, with a forecasted intensity of 65mph. After landfall, Eta will rapidly weaken into a tropical depression. The storm will move more Northeast, and move over the Atlantic waters. It will soon afterwards transition into an extratropical cyclone, and move quickly out to sea away from land.

#Eta has managed to regain #hurricane status as it moves towards the #Florida Coast. Further heavy and flooding rains are expected, alongside damaging winds and dangerous storm surge.#flwx pic.twitter.com/4TB2Vykbl2

— Force Thirteen (@ForceThirteen) November 11, 2020

Impacts

The main threat from Eta appears to be the water related hazards; storm surge and rainfall. Storm surge values of about 3-5 feet are expected along the Western coast of Florida from Anclote River southward to Boca Grande, including the Tampa Bay area. This is enough to cause significant property damage to homes and vehicles near the water, not to mention the deadly waves and rip currents that will accompany the water. Additional rainfall totals of 4-6 inches are possible along the coast at and south of the Tampa bay area to Marco Island. Rainfall totals of over 1 inch are also possible along the western half of the Florida peninsula. There is still a considerable wind threat as well, with tropical storm force winds already reaching the coast in some places. Sustained winds of 65mph are expected around the area of landfall. There is still a small chance of hurricane force gusts where a hurricane watch is currently in effect.

Warnings

Here is a list of watches and warnings from the National Hurricane Center.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

Everyone in the path of this storm should now rush preparations to completion, and stay safe. Stay tuned to local officials for information about your specific location.

The post Eta becomes a hurricane; Tropical storm conditions reaching the coast. appeared first on Force Thirteen.

Timing and impacts

Paulette is expected to take a more northwest motion for the next 2-3 days. Then it will take a mostly westward motion before resuming a northwest motion. As of now, it is not a threat to land, and any land impacts would be over a week away at this point. Paulette is expected to strengthen some to an intensity of about 50 knots (60 mph) before weakening occurs due to wind shear.

Tropical depression 18 is expected to continue moving to the west-northwest for the next 3 days, before beginning to recurve. 18 is forecasted to become a tropical storm within the next 12 hours. It is expected to be a weaker tropical storm while it passes over the Cabo Verde Islands. This will bring tropical storm force winds as high as 45 knots (50 mph) and heavy rain to these islands, where there is a tropical storm warning in effect. After passing the Cabo Verde islands, it is forecasted to strengthen to a category 1 hurricane with winds of 70 knots (80 mph). The system is then forecasted to begin to recurve out to sea. At this time, the Cabo Verde islands are the only land areas at threat from the depression.

Stay tuned to Force Thirteen and the National Hurricane Center for updates.

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