Hurricane Danielle » Text Products





UNIQUE IDENTIFIER: K
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 0300 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022
ADVISORY HEADLINE: DANIELLE RESTRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE


INPUT INTERP ATCF: al052022 DANIELLE 20220904 0315 38.0 -45.16 L HU 65.0 988.0 2.37 270.0
ADVISORY NUMBER: 11


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)SEP 04 2022, 0900 UTC

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  L ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

 
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR    
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
Danielle has, once again, become a hurricane. The 
satellite presentation consists of a single, primary 
curved band wrapping around approximately 95 percent of 
the surface circulation center. The Dvorak satellite 
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are a unanimous T-
4.0, yielding 65 kt which is the initial intensity for 
this advisory. 

The environment appears conducive for gradual 
strengthening during the short term. Beyond the 48-hour 
period, however, decreasing oceanic temperatures, an 
increasingly stable environment, and increasing vertical 
wind shear should induce a slow weakening trend. The 
latest Florida State Cyclone Phase Analysis, using the 
GFS, shows Danielle commencing an extratropical transition 
on the 6th. In that model, the cyclone maintains a 
moderate to deep warm core but becomes highly asymmetric 
(frontal characteristics) in the lower troposphere around 
the 8th. The analysis and the SHIPS statistical intensity 
model show Danielle completing its transition near the end 
of the 5-day forecast period with a well-developed cold 
core above 600 mb. The NHC forecast follows suit and shows 
Danielle as an extratropical cyclone at 120 h. The 
official intensity forecast now shows a peak intensity of 
80 kt in 36 hours and agrees with the NOAA HCCA and IVCN 
intensity consensus aids.  

Danielle has been drifting toward the west during the past 
several hours and this general motion is expected to 
continue through Sunday as the hurricane remains in weak 
steering currents to the south of high pressure anchored 
over the North Atlantic. Afterward, a turn to the north is 
forecast by Sunday night, followed by an acceleration 
toward the northeast in response to a deep-layer trough 
moving over the Canadian Maritimes and toward Danielle. 
The NHC forecast is an update of the previous one through 
72 hours, and is adjusted slightly south to lie closer to 
the various consensus models.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
 

 
$$
Forecaster 

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