Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
L ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN ,
......
SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- Fred has moved farther inland and is now located near the border of southwestern Georgia and southeastern Alabama. Between 0400-0600 UTC, Doppler radar data from Tallahassee, Florida, still showed 68-70 kt velocities between 9,000-10,000 ft associated with a solid band of convection in the northeastern quadrant. Using 50 percent of those values supported keeping Fred as a 35-kt tropical storm at 0600 UTC. This intensity was also supported by 30-kt winds on the west side of the low-level circulation noted in surface observations. Since that time, however, the solid band of convection has become fragmented and the thunderstorm activity has broken up into more discrete cells. Satellite and radar imagery also indicate that the mid- and upper-level circulations have decoupled and sheared out to the north of the low-level circulation. As a result, Fred has been downgraded to a tropical depression at the 0900 UTC advisory time. Weakening will continue through today as Fred moves farther inland over Georgia and into the southern Appalachians, with Fred likely becoming a remnant low later tonight before merging with a frontal system over the northern Appalachians on Wednesday. Fred has continued to move north-northeastward, or 015/12 kt. For the remainder of today, Fred should maintain a motion toward the north-northeast or northeast accompanied by a gradual increase forward speed owing to a very stable steering pattern between a deep-layer ridge to the east and a broad mid-tropospheric trough to the west. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track and lies near the middle of the tightly packed NHC model guidance suite. Although Fred is weakening, the system is still expected to bring flooding rains to portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during the next couple of days.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (Atlantic) $$ Forecaster
• OFFICIAL FWC-N FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •
