UNIQUE IDENTIFIER: K
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 0300 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022
ADVISORY HEADLINE: EARL BEING AFFECTED BY SHEAR AGAIN
INPUT INTERP ATCF: al062022 EARL 20220904 0315 19.56 -64.44 L TS 45.0 999.0 9.9 287.66
ADVISORY NUMBER: 4
NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)SEP 04 2022, 0900 UTC
Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
L () PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS ----------------------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- There are no indications that Earl has strengthened further than it did this afternoon. The low-level center is a little difficult to locate since it's obscured by high-level cirrus clouds, but it appears to have moved out ahead of the deep convection again. The initial intensity remains 45 kt, and this fits a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates of T3.5 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Earl continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. However, a break is developing in the ridge over the western Atlantic, which should allow Earl to turn northwestward on Sunday, followed by a recurvature toward the north and northeast Tuesday through Thursday. Although the track models agree on this scenario, the biggest differences among them is the along-track component, or how much Earl accelerates toward the north and northeast on days 3 through 5. Interestingly, both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means are well west and slower than their respective deterministic runs, and the deterministic GFS in particular is an extreme outlier and much faster than all other guidance by day 5 (likely because it carries a much stronger cyclone). With so many ensemble solutions slower and to the west, the updated NHC track forecast is placed to the west of many of the multi-model consensus aids, and it's just slightly west of the previous forecast. The moderate to strong shear affecting Earl is unlikely to abate through much of the forecast period. Despite this shear, very warm waters of at least 29 degrees Celsius and an unstable atmospheric environment are expected to encourage gradual strengthening during the next couple of days. Then, around day 3, Earl could get an additional positive boost from interaction with an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic, and the official forecast shows the system reaching hurricane strength by day 4 and intensifying through the end of the forecast period. It should be noted that a few models show significant strengthening by days 4 and 5, but for now the official forecast is conservative and is only nudged upward toward the IVCN model consensus. Tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to remain on the northern and eastern side of the circulation, and are not expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds in squalls are possible at these locations through Sunday.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (Atlantic) $$ Forecaster