Tropical Storm Earl » Text Products





UNIQUE IDENTIFIER: K
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 0300 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022
ADVISORY HEADLINE: EARL BEING AFFECTED BY SHEAR AGAIN


INPUT INTERP ATCF: al062022 EARL 20220904 0315 19.56 -64.44 L TS 45.0 999.0 9.9 287.66
ADVISORY NUMBER: 4


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)SEP 04 2022, 0900 UTC

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  L ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

 
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR    
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION
-----------------------------------
There are no indications that Earl has strengthened 
further than it did this afternoon. The low-level center 
is a little difficult to locate since it's obscured by 
high-level cirrus clouds, but it appears to have moved out 
ahead of the deep convection again. The initial intensity 
remains 45 kt, and this fits a blend of the latest Dvorak 
estimates of T3.5 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB, 
respectively. 

Earl continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to 
the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. However, a break 
is developing in the ridge over the western Atlantic, 
which should allow Earl to turn northwestward on Sunday, 
followed by a recurvature toward the north and northeast 
Tuesday through Thursday. Although the track models agree 
on this scenario, the biggest differences among them is 
the along-track component, or how much Earl accelerates 
toward the north and northeast on days 3 through 5. 
Interestingly, both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means are 
well west and slower than their respective deterministic 
runs, and the deterministic GFS in particular is an 
extreme outlier and much faster than all other guidance by 
day 5 (likely because it carries a much stronger cyclone). 
With so many ensemble solutions slower and to the west, 
the updated NHC track forecast is placed to the west of 
many of the multi-model consensus aids, and it's just 
slightly west of the previous forecast.

The moderate to strong shear affecting Earl is unlikely to 
abate through much of the forecast period. Despite this 
shear, very warm waters of at least 29 degrees Celsius and 
an unstable atmospheric environment are expected to 
encourage gradual strengthening during the next couple of 
days. Then, around day 3, Earl could get an additional 
positive boost from interaction with an upper-level trough 
over the western Atlantic, and the official forecast shows 
the system reaching hurricane strength by day 4 and 
intensifying through the end of the forecast period. It 
should be noted that a few models show significant 
strengthening by days 4 and 5, but for now the official 
forecast is conservative and is only nudged upward toward 
the IVCN model consensus. 

Tropical-storm-force winds are still forecast to remain on 
the northern and eastern side of the circulation, and are 
not expected to move across the northern Leeward Islands, 
the Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico. However, gusty winds 
in squalls are possible at these locations through Sunday.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
 

 
$$
Forecaster 

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