Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
L () PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS ----------------------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- Kate remains a strongly sheared tropical storm with the associated deep convection occurring in intermittent bursts in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, owing to 850-200-mb west-northwesterly vertical wind shear of at least 30 kt. The most recent Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimates remain at 35 kt, and that is the initial intensity set for this advisory. This intensity is consistent with an earlier SSMI-S passive microwave satellite overpass that showed wind speeds of 30-35 kt on the west side of Kate where no convection/rain was present. The intensity forecast is not as straightforward as the track forecast. The aforementioned hostile shear conditions are predicted by the regional and global models, especially the ECMWF model, to gradually abate over the next 18-24 hours, with the magnitude of the shear to decrease to less than 10 kt by 24-36 hours when Kate will be moving over 28.5 deg C water temperatures. If Kate can survive the next 18 hours or so, which is possible since the 850-300-mb shear is much less at only 10-15 kt, then some restrengthening could occur, especially in the 24-48-hour period when the cyclone will be located underneath a small upper-level anticyclone. Countering that, however, is the somewhat dry air (near-50-percent humidity) in the mid-levels of the atmosphere that could limit the formation of inner-core convection.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (Atlantic) $$ Forecaster
