Tropical Storm Rose » Text Products





UNIQUE IDENTIFIER: r
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 0930 UTC MON SEP 20 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: ROSE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH


INPUT INTERP ATCF: al172021 ROSE 20210920 0915 15.94 -32.64 L TS 35.14 1005.0 13.53 322.61
ADVISORY NUMBER: 1


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)SEP 20 2021, 2100 UTC.

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  L ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

 
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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DISCUSSION
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Rose remains a sheared tropical storm with the low-level center 
located near the eastern edge of the convective cloud mass based on 
an earlier 0359Z AMSR2 microwave overpass. These same data also 
revealed that a well-defined mid-level circulation center was 
located about 80-90 nmi west of the low-level center, an indication 
of the magnitude and effect of the mid-level shear impinging on the 
cyclone. The intensity of 35 kt is being maintained for this 
advisory based on subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 
35 from both TAFB and SAB. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are 
higher at 45-55 kt, which are considered to be unrepresentative due 
to the severe westward tilt of Rose's vortex column.

Rose only has about 24 hours over warm waters and in a weak vertical 
wind shear regime that will allow for some addition strengthening to 
occur. On days 2-5, however, increasing westerly shear is expected 
to induce some gradual weakening.  Rose is forecast to weaken to a 
tropical depression by 96 hours, although some of the models suggest 
that weakening could occur faster than indicated below, and that 
Rose could degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast 
period.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
 

 
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Forecaster 

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