• STORM FLOATER •
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23L (WILFRED) ***FINAL BULLETIN*** PUBLIC ADVISORY #4 FORCE THIRTEEN SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE 1510 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 ...WILFRED WEAKEN DOWN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR 15.7 N 44.2 W... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35MPH...55KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS ----------------------------------- NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- First-light visible imagery of Wilfred shows a well-defined center south of widespread - but not very well banded - deep convection. The improved positioning this morning allows for a more confident assessment of its movement toward the west-northwest at 17 kt. As the system slowly winds down, it will be increasingly steered by the low-level flow indicating a slower movement toward the west or west-northwest until dissipation. The new track forecast is slightly farther west due to the faster initial motion within 36 hours, then slightly farther east afterward based upon the TVCN track consensus approach. While the ASCAT scatterometer passes this morning missed Wilfred's center, ASCAT-B observed 30 kt peak winds in its northeastern quadrant. This value is used as the initial intensity, consistent with both SAB and TAFB's Dvorak classifications. The combination of outflow from Hurricane Teddy as well as winds on the southern side of an impinging upper-level trough are causing about 20 kt vertical shear from the west-northwest. This shear should increase over the next couple of days as Wilfred gets into closer proximity with the trough. The strong shear and dry mid-level humidities should continue to cause a reduction of the deep convection and lead to the system becoming a remnant low in a couple of days followed within another day or so by dissipation. All statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is in agreement with this scenario. Alternatively, Wilfred could become a remnant low sooner, if the convection ceases later today or Monday.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (Atlantic) THIS IS THE LAST REGULARLY SCHEDULED BULLETIN, NO MORE BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED. $$ Forecaster Knack
• OFFICIAL FWC-N FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •