• STORM FLOATER •
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26L (DELTA) PUBLIC ADVISORY #2 FORCE THIRTEEN SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE 1030 UTC WED OCT 7 2020 ...DELTA MAKING CLOSE CONTACT WITH THE YUCATAN... SUMMARY OF 0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR 20.6 N 86.4 W... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115MPH...185KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS ----------------------------------- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progreso Mexico
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- Satellite images show very deep convection associated with Delta, with extremely cold cloud-top temperatures to -97C noted southwest of the center overnight. However, this structure has not resulted in a stronger cyclone, and the full NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission actually indicated that Delta has significantly weakened since earlier today. The maximum flight-level winds were 98 kt, with SFMR values near 90 kt. Early in the mission, the flight director indicated that the eyewall had dissipated, but on the last fix, she noted that the eyewall had re-formed. Recent Cuban radar data also indicate that at least a partial eyewall is present, so the initial wind speed is generously kept at 100 kt. Delta should begin to re-intensify late today as it moves into an area of fairly warm and deep waters, with fairly light shear. The regional hurricane models all show Delta attaining category 4 status in 36-48 hours, and so does the NHC forecast. As Delta approaches the Louisiana coast, lower oceanic heat content and an increase in shear is likely to cause some weakening before landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, and leans on the stronger regional hurricane models. I should also note that all of the guidance show Delta becoming considerably larger than it is now by the time it reaches the northern Gulf coast, so even if weakening occurs there, the hurricane will likely bring a sizable area of hazardous conditions to the coast.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (Atlantic) NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT OCTOBER 7 2020, 1500 UTC. $$ Forecaster Knack
• OFFICIAL FWC-N FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •
