Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
E () PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS -----------------------------------
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- Despite its reasonably good satellite presentation, overnight satellite-derived wind data indicate that Two-E remains a tropical depression. Multiple ASCAT passes show Ten-E has a broad circulation with a low-level center that remains displaced southeast of the main region of deep convection. Although recent satellite imagery does show a new convective burst occurring near the estimated center position, the cyclone's lack of improved vertical structure combined with scatterometer winds near 25 kt suggest it has yet to strengthen. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 30 kt, which is consistent with the T2.0/30 kt subjective Dvorak classification received from TAFB. High oceanic heat content, very low vertical wind shear, and a moist mid-level environment should support strengthening during the next 24 hours or so, before increasing vertical wind shear becomes a limiting factor. The ECMWF suggests this could occur earlier than previously forecast, which is reflected in the latest intensity guidance that trends weaker. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is adjusted downward from the previous advisory beyond 24 hours, but still lies on the high end of the guidance envelope and above the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. It is noted that the HWRF and HMON depict more significant strengthening during the next 24 hours, which cannot be completely ruled out given the very favorable near-term conditions. Beyond day 3, cooler sea-surface temperatures and a drier mid-level environment should induce a steady weakening trend.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) $$ Forecaster
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •