YOUR SURNAME: knack
YOUR CITY: singapore
YOUR STATE: singapore
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 1010 UTC MON MAY 31 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE OPEN WATERS


INPUT INTERP ATCF: ep022021 TWO 20210531 0945 12.25 -106.72 E TD 30.83 1007.0 10.29 294.61
ADVISORY NUMBER: 2


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)MAY 31 2021, 1500 UTC.

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

  E ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
......
    
SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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DISCUSSION
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Despite its reasonably good satellite presentation, overnight 
satellite-derived wind data indicate that Two-E remains a tropical 
depression. Multiple ASCAT passes show Ten-E has a broad circulation 
with a low-level center that remains displaced southeast of the main 
region of deep convection. Although recent satellite imagery does 
show a new convective burst occurring near the estimated center 
position, the cyclone's lack of improved vertical structure combined 
with scatterometer winds near 25 kt suggest it has yet to 
strengthen. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at a possibly 
generous 30 kt, which is consistent with the T2.0/30 kt subjective 
Dvorak classification received from TAFB.

High oceanic heat content, very low vertical wind shear, and a moist 
mid-level environment should support strengthening during the next 
24 hours or so, before increasing vertical wind shear becomes a 
limiting factor. The ECMWF suggests this could occur earlier than 
previously forecast, which is reflected in the latest intensity 
guidance that trends weaker. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast 
is adjusted downward from the previous advisory beyond 24 hours, but 
still lies on the high end of the guidance envelope and above the 
HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. It is noted that the HWRF and HMON 
depict more significant strengthening during the next 24 hours, 
which cannot be completely ruled out given the very favorable 
near-term conditions. Beyond day 3, cooler sea-surface temperatures 
and a drier mid-level environment should induce a steady weakening 
trend.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
    

    
$$
Forecaster 
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •

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