Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
E ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN ,
......
SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
-----------------------------------
LOCATION...NEAR ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
-----------------------------------
None.
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- After being devoid of deep convection for 9-12 hours overnight, Felicia managed to redevelop a small area of convection near and north of its estimated low-level center. However, this convective activity is poorly-organized and already appears to be waning. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates at 1200 UTC were T2.5/35 kt from SAB and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, while the latest objective ADT estimate was T1.5/25 kt. Given the earlier scatterometer data and that convection had increased somewhat since that time, the initial intensity is only being lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt for this advisory. Despite the recent small convective burst, Felicia's large-scale environment remains dominated by moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear within a dry and stable airmass over 25-26 C sea-surface temperatures. Consequently, a good chunk of the deterministic model guidance (e.g., GFS/ECWMF/HWRF) depict Felicia struggling to produce much, if any, additional organized convection near its center.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) $$ Forecaster
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •
