Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
E ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN ,
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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None.
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- Sub-25C waters, dry and stable air, and moderate west-southwesterly shear have taken their toll on Guillermo. The depression has now been devoid of organized deep convection for several hours and mainly consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. A blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT indicate that the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The path of the depression should keep it over waters of around 23-24C over the next few days. This combined with the other negative environmental factors should continue to prevent any long-lived deep convection from redeveloping. Therefore, Guillermo is now forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Thereafter, the weakening vortex should open up into a trough within a few days. Guillermo is now moving a little faster, with a 12-h motion of 270/16 kt as it has become embedded within the easterly flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. This ridge is forecast to remain in place for several days, which should keep the depression on a west, or just south-of-west trajectory for the remainder of its existence. The official track forecast is near the previous one through 24 h, and then was nudged slightly to the south beyond 24 h due to a southward shift in the overall track guidance.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) $$ Forecaster
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •
