Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
E ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN ,
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- After strengthening quickly overnight and early this morning, Hilda's intensity appears to have leveled off for now. There continues to be hints of an eye feature in satellite images and deep convection is organized in curved bands around that feature. The latest Dvorak estimates are 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, 4.0/65 kt from SAB, and 4.1/67 kt from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. A recent ASCAT-B overpass showed a maximum wind of around 50 kt southeast of the center, but the coarse resolution of the instrument is unlikely to capture the storm's true intensity. Based on a combination of this data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt, but this could be a little conservative and Hilda is very near hurricane strength. The aforementioned ASCAT data was also used to adjust the wind radii inward at the initial and short range forecast times. Steady strengthening seems likely during the next 24 to 36 hours as the environment remains generally favorable, consisting of relatively warm SSTs, low wind shear, and a high amount of moisture. The NHC intensity forecast during that time period is the same as before and lies at the high end of the model guidance, near HCCA. Beyond 36 hours, however, decreasing moisture and progressively cooler SSTs should end the strengthening trend and gradually cause weakening during the remainder of the forecast period.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) $$ Forecaster
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •
