Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
E () PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS -----------------------------------
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- Visible and scatterometer satellite data continue to show depression getting stretched further from west-to-east, with the surface circulation now elliptical-shaped about 500 nmi long and 250 nmi wide. A 1757Z ASCAT-B pass revealed an ill-defined low-level circulation center and one 26-kt wind vector 60-70 nmi west of the center. Unlike a few hours ago, deep convection has begun to wane with cloud tops now warmer than -70 deg C. The intensity has been held at 25 kt based on the ASCAT wind data and the overall poor appearance in satellite imagery. The depression's future intensity, and even its existence as a tropical cyclone, depends heavily on the track over the next 120 hours. A more westward motion as per the ECMWF would keep the cyclone over warmer water and in a more favorable upper-level pattern, whereas a sharp northward motion like the GFS is predicting would take the cyclone over cold SSTs below 25 deg C and into a strong wind shear environment. Another negative factor continues to be the west-to-east stretching of the depression's low-level wind field caused by Tropical Storm Hilda's larger and stronger circulation. As more of the southerly/southwesterly cross-equatorial low-level inflow gets drawn away from the elongated cyclone and into Hilda, most of the depression's inflow will be cooler and drier air trade wind flow coming into the northern semicircle, which would induce weakening.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) $$ Forecaster
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •