Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
E ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN ,
......
SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- Kevin is a poorly defined tropical cyclone. A recent scatterometer pass shows a small enclosed low embedded in a larger, elongated cyclonic gyre. This satellite wind data also indicated that the strongest winds associated with the cyclone are located well to the south of the center. Some of this data was questionable, and the wind retrievals greater than 45 kt were in an area of deep convection and likely rain contaminated. However, there were a few believable wind vectors outside of the convection between 40-45 kt, so Kevin's initial intensity has been adjusted to 45 kt, despite the disorganized satellite presentation. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist over Kevin for the next 18-24 h, which should limit the cyclone's ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level moisture. By 24 h, the cyclone will begin to pass over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Based on this scenario
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) $$ Forecaster
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •
