Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
E () PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS -----------------------------------
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- The circulation of the depression has continued to become better defined, and there has been a substantial increase in deep convection within bands to the north and northeast of the center. However, the inner core remains slightly displaced from this activity, and a combination of subjective and objective intensity estimates supports maintaining the cyclone as a 30-kt depression for this advisory. There are counteracting factors at play regarding the depression's future intensity. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be low, the GFS suggests that moderate to strong mid-level shear could develop below the outflow level during the next 24-48 hours. Sea surface temperatures will be plenty warm for strengthening during the next 48 hours, yet upper-level divergence is not expected to be ideal. Since the system's circulation appears to be improving, steady strengthening is forecast during the first 48 hours, and the depression could become a short-lived hurricane while it passes the Baja California peninsula.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) $$ Forecaster
