• STORM FLOATER •
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E (SEVENTEEN) PUBLIC ADVISORY #1 FORCE THIRTEEN SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE 1510 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR 17.0 N 112.0 W... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35MPH...55KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS ----------------------------------- NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- Although the circulation still appears to be elongated, the depression has become a little better organized during the past several hours, with the low-level center closer to the large mass of convection in the southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 30 kt, so the initial intensity is nudged upward to 30 kt. Current indications are that the current easterly shear should subside a little during the next 24-36 h, and this should allow the system to become a tropical storm. As noted in the previous advisory, the intensity after 36 h will be strongly dependent on where the center is in relation to the strong sea surface temperature gradient. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast based on the forecast track keeping the system over 25-26C water temperatures through 120 h. However, any motion north of the forecast track would bring the center over colder water and lead to a system weaker than forecast, while any motion south of the track would keep it over warmer water and possibly allow the cyclone to become a hurricane. As might have guessed, this is a low confidence intensity forecast.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT SEPTEMBER 22 2020, 0900 UTC. $$ Forecaster Knack
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •
