Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
E () PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS ----------------------------------- ...HURRICANE WARNING... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- Rick has changed little in organization since last night, with an 80-100 n mi wide Central Dense Overcast surrounded by some convective banding features. The intensity estimate is held at 75 kt for this advisory based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, along with objective ADT numbers from UW-CIMSS. Upper-level outflow has become less well-defined over the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone, suggestive of some south-southeasterly shear. Although Rick has been in a seemingly conducive environment for strengthening, the hurricane has not intensified much. This reminds us of our limited understanding of tropical cyclone intensity change. Nonetheless, since Rick should remain over warm waters and in a fairly moist mid-level atmospheric environment before reaching the coast, the official forecast continues to call for some strengthening during the next 12 hours or so. When the center nears the coast, some increase in southwesterly shear and the interaction with the mountainous land mass of southern Mexico could cause some weakening.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) $$ Forecaster
