• STORM FLOATER •
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18E (MARIE) PUBLIC ADVISORY #9 FORCE THIRTEEN SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE 1520 UTC MON OCT 5 2020 ...MARIE WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR 21.1 N 131.9 W... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60MPH...95KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS ----------------------------------- NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- The remains of the deep convection associated with Marie continues to get further displaced from the exposed low-level center due strong upper-level westerly winds, with the gap now over 100 n mi between those two features. The various satellite intensity estimates suggest that the current intensity may only be 45 kt. However, due to fair number of 55-kt wind vectors on the ASCAT overpass early this morning, the intensity is conservatively being lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. Marie is expected to weaken over the next few days in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind shear, over SSTs cooler that 25 degrees C, surrounded by a dry and stable airmass. With the convection now displaced so far from the center, and no regeneration of convection near the center anticipated, Marie is now forecast to become a remnant low by Tuesday night. This could happen even sooner if the current trend continues.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) THIS IS THE LAST REGULARLY SCHEDULED BULLETIN, NO MORE BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED. $$ Forecaster Knack
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •
