Tropical Cyclone Paddy » Text Products





UNIQUE IDENTIFIER: r
TIME (e.g. 1800 UTC SAT FEB 22 2020): 1430 UTC MOV NOV 22 2021
ADVISORY HEADLINE: PADDY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY


INPUT INTERP ATCF: sh012022 PADDY 20211122 1415 -13.78 108.02 S TS 40.0 988.0 2.72 226.71
ADVISORY NUMBER: 1


NEXT ADVISORY TIME (e.g. SEP 16 2021, 1800 UTC)NOV 23 2021, 0000 UTC.

Please allow time for floater to build.

• STORM FLOATER •

   ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

 
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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DISCUSSION
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Position determined from animated IR imagery. Earlier scatterometer passes
indicated gales wrapping around the southern and western side of the system and
deep convection continues within those quadrants. 

Paddy [02U] is a smaller than average system that responded quickly to
favourable conditions overnight, however the system intensity has now plateaued
over the last 6-12 hours.

Dvorak assessment is based on an initial classification of T1.0 at 00Z on
21/11/2021. At 0000Z on 22/11/2021 FT is constrained to 2.5, although the
operational intensity estimate at that time was equivalent to T3.0 based on
scatterometer passes. At 1200UTC a wrap of 0.7 on EIR yields DT 3.0. While the
organisation of the system has improved over the last 24 hours there is less
deep convection near the system centre, thus MET is 2.5 based on a D- trend, PAT
is 3.0. FT and CI remain at 3.0.  

SSTs remain above 28C, with broadly low shear and favourable upper divergence
poleward of the system due to a mid-latitude trough. However as the trough moves
further east a ridge to the south is strengthening and as a small system the
intensity may fluctuate due to local variations in conditions.

Paddy is expected to move slowly south over the next 24 hours and intensify only
moderately. Beyond 24 hours the influence of the ridge to the south will
increase. Paddy is expected to commence a more westward track and weaken as dry
air wraps around the system and easterly wind shear increases. NWP is generally
consistent with the forecast movement of Paddy, though intensity varies and
fluctuations are unlikely to be adequately represented.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
Bureau of Meteorology
 

 
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Forecaster 

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