Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
() PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS -----------------------------------
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- Position determined from animated IR imagery. Earlier scatterometer passes indicated gales wrapping around the southern and western side of the system and deep convection continues within those quadrants. Paddy [02U] is a smaller than average system that responded quickly to favourable conditions overnight, however the system intensity has now plateaued over the last 6-12 hours. Dvorak assessment is based on an initial classification of T1.0 at 00Z on 21/11/2021. At 0000Z on 22/11/2021 FT is constrained to 2.5, although the operational intensity estimate at that time was equivalent to T3.0 based on scatterometer passes. At 1200UTC a wrap of 0.7 on EIR yields DT 3.0. While the organisation of the system has improved over the last 24 hours there is less deep convection near the system centre, thus MET is 2.5 based on a D- trend, PAT is 3.0. FT and CI remain at 3.0. SSTs remain above 28C, with broadly low shear and favourable upper divergence poleward of the system due to a mid-latitude trough. However as the trough moves further east a ridge to the south is strengthening and as a small system the intensity may fluctuate due to local variations in conditions. Paddy is expected to move slowly south over the next 24 hours and intensify only moderately. Beyond 24 hours the influence of the ridge to the south will increase. Paddy is expected to commence a more westward track and weaken as dry air wraps around the system and easterly wind shear increases. NWP is generally consistent with the forecast movement of Paddy, though intensity varies and fluctuations are unlikely to be adequately represented.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW Bureau of Meteorology $$ Forecaster
