622. Tropical Storm 14S » Text Products

• STORM FLOATER •

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PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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Warning zone: Beagle Bay to Port Hedland, including Broome but not including Port Hedland, extending to the inland Pilbara including Marble Bar and Nullagine.

Watch zone: Inland areas of the east Pilbara including Telfer and Parnngurr.

Refer to the Bureau of Meteorology for latest warnings.

DISCUSSION
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The 12UTC analysis fix was obtained from several microwave passes through the
early evening, The EIR and IR imagery show convection is still forming near the
centre but there appears to be little real curvature to the convection with a
sharp edge along the convective blow up in the EIR indicating that the system is
still suffering under north to northeast shear.

A shear pattern analysis yields a DT of 2.5 though this is subject to
uncertainty regarding the position. Trend is barely a D minus giving a MET of
2.0 and FT of 2.0 is assigned based on MET. NESDIS ADT was 3.1 at 12 UTC with a
1 minute averaged winds of 45 knots. No other objective guidance is available at
this time. Final intensity estimate has been increased to 35 knots as the
surface observation from Rowley Shoals showed a brief period of gales around
1000UTC however gales are restricted to southern quadrants.

The system is in a moist environment and over very warm SSTs. Upper divergence
is strong to the south but weak equatorward. Development has thus far been
constrained by wind shear. Shear may weaken a little overnight or early Friday
as the system moves around the western flank of an upper anticyclone before
experiencing increasing northwesterly winds aloft as an upper trough approaches.
A faster rate of development is possible on Friday if/as the shear drops a
little and coastal convergence enhances inflow. 

Deterministic [hi-res] model runs are in close agreement regarding track, which
is dominated by the anticyclone to the east and the approaching mid-latitude
upper trough. There is greater divergence in track amongst ensemble members.

Models indicate that the system remains coherent for some time over flat terrain
post landfall so gales may persist for a period longer than normal.

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
Bureau of Meteorology
    

    
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Forecaster

• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •

• BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, PERTH FORECAST •