668. Tropical Cyclone Faraji » Text ProductsMay 18th, 2021 at 07:08 AM

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3 years ago

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PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION
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DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF FARAJI REMAINED
IN A CDO PATTERN, WITH TOPS THAT REMAIN QUITE COLD. AN EYE STARTER
THAT CAN EVEN BE SEEN IN THE LAST MOMENTS. AT FIRST GLANCE, IT SEEMS
THAT FARAJI RESISTS WELL BUT THE LAST AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGES OF
1559UTC SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION,
ALREADY NOTED DURING THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN
CDO GIVES A VALUE OF 5.0 LEAVING WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 80KT.

FARAJI HAS STARTED A SOUTHWARD SHIFT, MARKING THE BEGINNING OF HIS
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST GUIDED BY THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN THE SPEED OF THE WEAKENING AND THE
TRACK PARTLY EXPLAINS THE DIFFERENCES OBSERVED BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT
GUIDANCES. THEREAFTER, AS THE GUIDING FLOW GRADUALLY DESCENDS INTO
THE LOW LAYERS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TAKES OVER THE
TRACK, THE ORIENTATION TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL BE MORE
MARKED. ON SUNDAY, A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
AS THE RIDGE PIVOTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE MODERATE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR FROM WEST
TO NORTHWEST SECTOR IS STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY AFFECTING THE
STRUCTURE OF THE VORTEX BY BRINGING DRY AIR NEAR THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BUT THE DRY AIR SHOULD
ALREADY BE WELL ABOVE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND REMAIN THERE
AFTERWARDS. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALSO REMAINS OMNIPRESENT EVEN IF IT
WEAKENS DURING THE PERIOD. THUS, THE AVAILABLE MODELS PROPOSE A
PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL SUNDAY, PROBABLY UP TO THE
STAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, WITH AN INCREASE
IN DIVERGENCE, LESS DRY AIR AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE EQUATORIAL SURFACE, A REINTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE. AS A
CONSEQUENCE, THE RSMC FORECAST GOES BACK TO THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE
AT 5 DAYS.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY PARTICULAR RISK FOR THE INHABITED
LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
MeteoFrance La Reunion
    

    
$$
Forecaster