• STORM FLOATER •
S (GUAMBE) PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS ----------------------------------- NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN ESTIMATED WITH A FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE, THANKS TO THE MICROWAVE GPM GMI IMAGE OF 0216Z. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY EVOLVED INTO A CDO, WITH CLOUD TOPS TEMPORARILY COOLING DOWN NEAR THE CENTER. THE CMRS SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST SATCON AND ADT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, RESULTING IN AN ESTIMATE OF MEAN WINDS AT 50 KT, STILL AT THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: GUAMBE MAINTAINS A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH, GUAMBE WILL BE GUIDED MORE FRANKLY ON A SOUTH-EASTERN TRAJECTORY THAT SHOULD NOT CHANGE AND WILL PRESENT A NOTICED ACCELERATION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL LEAD TO ITS RAPID EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES, CAUGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FURTHER SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT VERY SCATTERED AROUND THIS SCENARIO AS FAR AS DIRECTION IS CONCERNED, BUT STILL PRESENT SOME DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF EVACUATION SPEED. THE INTENSIFICATION OF GUAMBE SEEMS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE POLAR SIDE, A WEAK WIND SHEAR, AND STILL SOME OCEANIC POTENTIAL. FROM THIS EVENING, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY STRENGTHEN IN FRONT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM FROM TOMORROW EVENING. GUAMBE SHOULD RESIST TO THE WIND SHEAR ALOFT, DUE TO ITS RAPID MOVEMENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE UPPER WIND SHEAR. IT WILL THEN START TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS.=
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW MeteoFrance La Reunion $$ Forecaster
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• OFFICIAL MÉTÉOFRANCE FORECAST •

• OFFICIAL MÉTÉOFRANCE FORECAST •
