677. Tropical Cyclone Guambe » Text Products

May 18th, 2021 at 07:09 AM

  S (GUAMBE)
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION
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THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN ESTIMATED WITH A FAIRLY
GOOD CONFIDENCE, THANKS TO THE MICROWAVE GPM GMI IMAGE OF 0216Z. OVER
THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY EVOLVED
INTO A CDO, WITH CLOUD TOPS TEMPORARILY COOLING DOWN NEAR THE CENTER.
THE CMRS SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST SATCON
AND ADT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, RESULTING IN AN ESTIMATE OF MEAN WINDS AT
50 KT, STILL AT THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: GUAMBE MAINTAINS A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH, GUAMBE WILL BE GUIDED MORE FRANKLY ON A SOUTH-EASTERN
TRAJECTORY THAT SHOULD NOT CHANGE AND WILL PRESENT A NOTICED
ACCELERATION TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL LEAD TO ITS
RAPID EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES, CAUGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FURTHER SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE NOT VERY SCATTERED AROUND THIS SCENARIO AS FAR AS DIRECTION IS
CONCERNED, BUT STILL PRESENT SOME DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF EVACUATION
SPEED.

THE INTENSIFICATION OF GUAMBE SEEMS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERMS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ON
THE POLAR SIDE, A WEAK WIND SHEAR, AND STILL SOME OCEANIC POTENTIAL.
FROM THIS EVENING, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
STRENGTHEN IN FRONT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND LEAD TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM FROM TOMORROW EVENING.
GUAMBE SHOULD RESIST TO THE WIND SHEAR ALOFT, DUE TO ITS RAPID
MOVEMENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE UPPER WIND SHEAR. IT WILL THEN START
TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS.=

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
MeteoFrance La Reunion
    

    
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Forecaster